Leaderboard
Track records for everyone on the Index. Hit rate counts only predictions whose deadline has passed — a partially-correct call scores half a point. People with no resolved predictions yet are unranked.
| # | Who | Type | ✓ | ◐ | ✗ | ◷ | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Altman CEO, OpenAI | Tech CEO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 2 | Dario Amodei CEO, Anthropic | Tech CEO | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 50% |
| 3 | Alan Turing Founder of computer science | Researcher | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50% |
| 4 | Elon Musk CEO, Tesla | Tech CEO | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| 5 | Geoffrey Hinton Turing Award winner; 'godfather of deep learning' | Researcher | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0% |
| 6 | Herbert A. Simon AI pioneer; Nobel laureate & Turing Award winner | Researcher | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| 7 | Marvin Minsky Co-founder, MIT AI Lab | Researcher | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| 8 | Vernor Vinge Mathematician & science-fiction author | Thought Leader | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| 9 | Ginni Rometty CEO, IBM | Tech CEO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| — | Ray Kurzweil Inventor & futurist, Google | Thought Leader | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | unranked |
| — | Frey & Osborne Oxford University economists | Economist | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | unranked |
| — | Masayoshi Son CEO, SoftBank | Investor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | unranked |
| — | Goldman Sachs Research Investment bank research division | Wall Street | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | unranked |
| — | Altman, Brockman & Sutskever OpenAI leadership | Tech CEO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | unranked |
| — | Jensen Huang CEO, NVIDIA | Tech CEO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | unranked |
| — | Demis Hassabis CEO, Google DeepMind; Nobel laureate | Tech CEO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | unranked |
Columns: ✓ correct · ◐ partially correct · ✗ incorrect · ◷ pending. See the methodology for how each call is made.