“AI will surpass the world's best competitive programmer within one to two years.”
Said Dec 17, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2026Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy, 'Scott Wu – Building Cognition', December 17, 2024 (wording per the show's episode summary)
Window closes at the end of 2026. Trending toward correct: OpenAI's system reportedly beat every human finalist at the AtCoder World Tour Finals in July 2026, about 19 months after the prediction, after losing narrowly to human champion Psyho at the 2025 edition.