The Index

“By the year 2000, machines will be able to fool 30% of human judges during a five-minute text conversation.”

Not achieved by 2000, but modern language models now routinely pass five-minute conversational tests: controlled 2024 studies found GPT-4 judged human well above Turing's 30% threshold. Right about the destination, ~25 years off on the date.

“Machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do.”

By 1985, AI was in the middle of an 'AI winter.' Machines could not perform most human work then, and still cannot perform all of it today.

“In from three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being.”

No machine approached human-level general intelligence by 1978. Funding cuts and the first AI winter followed within a few years.

“Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.”

2023 saw remarkable AI progress, but no superhuman general intelligence and no end of the human era. Frontier models remained clearly below expert human ability in most domains.

“AI will pass a valid Turing test, achieving human-level intelligence, by 2029.”

Conversational tests are increasingly passed, but Kurzweil's own definition requires expert-level performance across the full range of human cognition.

“The Singularity — a profound merger of human and machine intelligence — will occur around 2045.”

“47% of total US employment is at high risk of computerisation, perhaps over the next decade or two.”

A decade in, US employment reached record highs even as automation advanced — but generative AI has reopened the question for knowledge work.

“Watson will touch one billion consumers by the end of 2017, transforming healthcare along the way.”

Watson Health fell far short of its promises: flagship partnerships like MD Anderson were cancelled, and IBM sold off Watson Health assets in 2022.

“A Tesla will drive itself from Los Angeles to New York, fully autonomously, by the end of 2017.”

The coast-to-coast autonomous demo never happened — not in 2017, and not in the years after. Tesla's system still requires driver supervision.

“People should stop training radiologists now. It's just completely obvious that within five years deep learning is going to do better than radiologists.”

By 2021 AI had become a useful assistive tool in radiology, but radiologist demand grew — the US faced a radiologist shortage. Hinton later acknowledged the timeline was wrong.

“Within 30 years, superintelligence — AI with an IQ of 10,000 — will become a reality.”

“Tesla will have one million robotaxis on the road next year (2020).”

Zero Tesla robotaxis operated in 2020. Tesla's first limited, supervised robotaxi pilot did not launch until 2025 — with a small fleet, not a million.

“Generative AI could raise global GDP by 7% — almost $7 trillion — over a 10-year period.”

“There is a 10–20% chance that AI leads to human extinction within the next three decades.”

A probabilistic risk estimate; tracked for the record.

“It's conceivable that within the next ten years, AI systems will exceed expert skill level in most domains.”

“Within five years, AI will pass every test a human can take.”

AI already matches or beats humans on many standardized exams; comprehensive coverage of 'every test' remains open.

“Powerful AI — smarter than a Nobel Prize winner across most relevant fields — could come as early as 2026.”

Framed explicitly as an 'as early as' estimate, not a commitment.

“In 2025, we may see the first AI agents join the workforce and materially change the output of companies.”

AI coding, research, and support agents were deployed in production across many companies during 2025, with measurable output changes in software engineering and customer service.

“In three to six months, AI will be writing 90% of the code. In twelve months, essentially all of it.”

AI code generation grew explosively, and some AI labs report that a large majority of their own code is now AI-written — but 90% across the software industry did not materialize on this timeline.

“AGI is five to ten years away — a system that matches all human cognitive capabilities.”