CEO, TSMC
“Supply of advanced AI chips will not balance with demand until 2025 or 2026 — 'I hope in 2025 or 2026 we can reach the balance' — with CoWoS advanced packaging still the bottleneck.”
As of mid-2026 supply was still short: reporting citing Taiwan's Economic Daily put the CoWoS demand-capacity gap at roughly 20%, expected to narrow toward 10% by the end of 2026.
“We forecast the foundry 2.0 industry to grow 14% year over year in 2026 and expect our own revenue to increase close to 30% in U.S. dollar terms, with a long-term revenue CAGR approaching 25% over the 2024–2029 period.”
Full-year 2026 results are due in January 2027; TSMC raised its 2026 outlook and capex again at the July 2026 (Q2) call as AI demand stayed strong.
“The revenue contribution last year [2025] from advanced packaging is slightly over 10%; it's about 8% in 2024. We expect it to grow faster than the corporate average and account for low-teens percent in 2026.”
Resolvable only with full-year 2026 results in January 2027; TSMC has continued to expand CoWoS and other advanced packaging capacity through 2026.
“Today, server AI processor demand, which we define as CPUs, GPUs and AI accelerators that are performing training and inference functions, accounts for approximately 6% of TSMC's total revenue. We forecast this to grow at close to 50% CAGR in the next 5 years and increase to low-teens percent of our revenue in 2027.”
Resolution keys on the 2027 revenue-share figure; TSMC has since run well ahead of this path, with AI accelerator revenue already at a high-teens percent of total revenue in 2025.
“For the next 5 years, we forecast it [server AI processor revenue] to grow at 50% CAGR and increase to higher than 20% of our revenue by 2028.”
AI accelerator revenue reached a high-teens percent of TSMC's total revenue in 2025, leaving the >20%-by-2028 target on track; TSMC has since raised its five-year AI CAGR guidance to the mid-to-high 50s.
“We now forecast the revenue growth from AI accelerators to approach a mid-40% CAGR for the 5-year period starting off the already higher base of 2024.”
Tracking above plan so far: at the Q4 2025 call in January 2026 Wei raised the 2024-2029 AI accelerator guidance to a mid-to-high-50s percent CAGR.
“We raise our forecast for the revenue growth from AI accelerators to approach a mid-to-high-fifties percent CAGR for the five-year period starting from 2024 [through 2029].”
Raised from the mid-40s percent CAGR TSMC guided in 2025; management reconfirmed the mid-to-high-50s range on subsequent 2026 calls.
“Even after more than tripling in 2024, we forecast our revenue from AI accelerator to double in 2025, as the strong surge in AI-related demand continues.”
TSMC's 2025 revenue rose 35.9% to $122.4 billion and AI accelerators moved from a 'close to mid-teens' share of revenue in 2024 to a 'high-teens' share in 2025, implying roughly 70-85% growth in AI accelerator revenue — very strong, but short of the forecast doubling.
“We expect 2025 to be another strong growth year for TSMC, and forecast our full-year revenue to increase by close to mid-20s percent in US dollar terms.”
2025 was indeed a very strong growth year, but the number was far too conservative: TSMC reported full-year 2025 revenue of $122.4 billion, up 35.9% in US dollar terms, versus guidance of 'close to mid-20s percent.'
“TSMC's 2-nanometer process (N2) is on track for volume production in the second half of 2025.”
Wei confirmed on the January 2026 call that N2 entered volume production as scheduled in the fourth quarter of 2025 at both the Hsinchu and Kaohsiung sites, with yields ahead of expectations.
“We forecast the overall semiconductor market excluding memory to increase by more than 10% in 2024, while foundry industry growth is forecast to be approximately 20%. For TSMC, we expect our full-year 2024 revenue to increase by low- to mid-20s percent in U.S. dollar terms.”
TSMC did comfortably outgrow the foundry industry, but it beat its own guidance: 2024 revenue was US$90.08 billion, up 30% in U.S. dollar terms, above the low- to mid-20s percent range (TSMC raised the guidance twice during the year).
“Almost all the AI innovators are working with TSMC to address the insatiable AI-related demand for energy efficient computing power — we estimate the revenue contribution from server AI processors to more than double this year [2024].”
TSMC exceeded the forecast: by the October 2024 call it had raised the outlook to 'more than triple,' and AI accelerator revenue ended 2024 at close to mid-teens percent of total revenue, up from roughly 6% in 2023.
“In Arizona, we have started engineering wafer production with N4 process technology and are on track for volume production in the first half of 2025; once we begin volume production we are confident to deliver the same level of manufacturing quality and reliability as our fabs in Taiwan.”
TSMC Arizona Fab 21 entered high-volume N4 production in Q4 2024 — ahead of the first-half-2025 target — with yields TSMC said were comparable to its Taiwan fabs.
“From last year to this year, we have more than doubled [CoWoS capacity]. And as I said, from this year to next year, we want to double again, or probably we want to [do] more.”
TSMC roughly doubled CoWoS capacity again in 2025 — industry trackers put monthly capacity near 70,000–75,000 wafers by year-end, versus roughly 35,000–40,000 in 2024 — while demand continued to outstrip supply.
“We now forecast the revenue contribution from server AI processors to more than triple this year and account for mid-teens percentage of our total revenue in 2024.”
TSMC subsequently reported that AI accelerator revenue more than tripled in 2024 and accounted for close to mid-teens percent of total 2024 revenue.
“We now forecast our full-year [2024] revenue to increase by close to 30% in U.S. dollar terms.”
TSMC's 2024 consolidated revenue was US$90.08 billion, up 30.0% year over year in U.S. dollar terms.
“Supported by our strong technology differentiation and broad customer base, we now expect our full year 2025 revenue to increase by close to mid-30s percent year-over-year in U.S. dollar terms.”
TSMC's 2025 revenue was US$122.42 billion, up 35.9% year over year in U.S. dollar terms — squarely 'close to mid-30s percent.'