Andrej Karpathy

“AGI is still a decade away. My AI timelines are about 5-10X pessimistic w.r.t. what you'll find in your neighborhood SF AI house party or on your twitter timeline, but still quite optimistic w.r.t. a rising tide of AI deniers and skeptics.”

Andrej KarpathyResearcher

Founding member of OpenAI; former Senior Director of AI at Tesla; founder of Eureka Labs

Horizon runs to roughly 2035; Karpathy's bar is an AI you can delegate to like an employee.

“We are already living in a continuous intelligence explosion and have been for decades; AGI will not produce a discrete break in economic growth but will blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of ~2% GDP growth. Asked directly whether the rate of growth will not change — 'Yes, my expectation is that it stays in the same pattern.'”

Andrej KarpathyResearcher

Founding member of OpenAI; former Senior Director of AI at Tesla

Narrowed from a bundled 'no intelligence explosion or GDP takeoff' framing to the growth-rate component Karpathy explicitly affirmed; resolvable against US real GDP (per capita) growth staying near its long-run ~2% trend over his own stated decade-to-AGI horizon.