AI Prediction Index

David Dalrymple

Programme Director for Safeguarded AI, UK Advanced Research and Invention Agency

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“I would guess that by December 2026 the RSI [recursive self-improvement] loop on algorithms will probably be closed, resulting in another inflection point to an even faster pace, perhaps around 70-80 day doubling time.”

Programme Director for Safeguarded AI, UK Advanced Research and Invention Agency

Said Dec 20, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026David Dalrymple (@davidad) on X, December 20, 2025

Made in a thread arguing that AI progress is piecewise-exponential, with inflection points as recursive self-improvement loops close on data, algorithms, hardware and manufacturing; resolves at the end of 2026.