Robin Hanson

“Bet against near-term explosive AI-driven growth: Hanson stakes $10,000 against Samuel Albanie's $2,500 (4:1, implied 20% probability) that U.S. real GDP per capita will NOT grow by at least 15% within a single year — i.e. no quarter through 2033Q4 in which BEA real GDP per capita is at least 15% above the prior peak four quarters earlier.”

Robin HansonEconomist

Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University

Resolves on BEA real GDP per capita data through 2033Q4; as of early 2026 no such 15% single-year jump has occurred.

“The basic premise of my book is that the next big revolution on the scale of the farming and industrial revolutions will come from human level artificial intelligence in the form of brain emulations (ems). Yes, because people have asked I've estimated that this will happen within roughly a century, but that estimate isn't central.”

Robin HansonEconomist

Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University; author of The Age of Em

Whole-brain emulation has not been achieved; the ~2116 horizon is far in the future, and Hanson himself notes the century estimate is not central to his argument.

“I predict that, like in every prior year, 2024 will NOT see the sort of AI econ impact or investment prices that one might expect if it were about take over most of the economy in a decade or so. In fact, I'd bet on this at 10-1 odds.”

Robin HansonEconomist

Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University; author of The Age of Em

2024 showed no macroeconomic signature of imminent economy-wide automation: US real GDP grew roughly 2.8%, productivity growth was normal-to-good, aggregate labor markets showed no AI-driven displacement, and real interest rates did not move as they would if markets priced AI taking over most of the economy within a decade. AI-related equity and capex booms (e.g. Nvidia) were large but far below takeover-scale pricing, so the claim resolves in Hanson's favor, though its wording is subjective.

“The US BEA has been tracking the fraction of the US economy devoted to computer and electronics hardware. That fraction was 2.3% in 1997, 1.7% in 2003, and 1.58% in 2008, and 1.56% in 2012. I offer to bet that this number won't rise above 5% by 2025. And I'll give 20-1 odds! So far, I have no takers.”

Robin HansonEconomist

Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University

The BEA computer-and-electronic-products share of the US economy stayed near its long-run ~1.5–2% level and never approached 5%; Hanson appended to the post on 1 January 2025 that he had won the bet (the counterparty who took the 20-1 offer did not pay up).