AI Prediction Index

Mark Liu

Chairman, TSMC

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“It is not the shortage of AI chips, it is the shortage of our CoWoS capacity. Currently, we cannot fulfill 100% of our customers' needs, but we try to support about 80%. We think this is a temporary phenomenon. After our expansion of [advanced chip packaging capacity], it should be alleviated in one and a half years.”

Chairman, TSMC

The CoWoS bottleneck was not alleviated within 18 months: Liu's successor C.C. Wei publicly revised the timeline in July 2024 to 'I hope in 2025 or 2026 we can reach the balance,' and industry reporting in mid-2026 still put CoWoS supply roughly 10–20% short of demand despite capacity doubling in both 2024 and 2025.

“While we are working to improve the situation, including sending experienced technicians from Taiwan to train the local skilled workers for a short period of time, we expect the production schedule of N4 process technology [at TSMC's first Arizona fab] to be pushed out to 2025.”

Chairman, TSMC

Said Jul 20, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2025TSMC Q2 2023 earnings call, reported by CNBC, July 20, 2023

TSMC pulled the schedule back in: its Arizona Fab 21 entered high-volume production on N4 in Q4 2024 — which TSMC's own 2024 annual report described as 'earlier than scheduled' — rather than slipping to 2025 as Liu forecast.