Dan Ives

“AI goes mainstream in 2024: 'We believe AI is the biggest transformation in the tech sector in the last 30 years and is a 1995 Moment not seen since the start of the internet' — AI and related purchases will account for 8% to 10% of IT budgets in 2024, up from less than 1% in 2023.”

There is no authoritative, consistently measured figure for AI's share of enterprise IT budgets in 2024; vendor and survey estimates vary widely (IDC-style AI spending totals imply low single digits of global IT spend, while some CIO surveys report higher shares), so the claim cannot be cleanly judged.

“Tesla price target raised from $350 to $500: 'We believe the golden age of autonomous is now on the doorstep for Tesla with the Austin launch next month… The $1 trillion of AI valuation will start to get unlocked in the Tesla story and we believe the march to a $2 trillion valuation for TSLA over the next 12 to 18 months has now begun.'”

The 12-month leg lapsed just short: Tesla's all-time high was $498.83 intraday on December 22, 2025, versus the $500 target. The $2 trillion valuation leg runs to about November 2026, with Tesla's market cap around $1.4 trillion as of September 2026.

“We believe both Nvidia and Microsoft will hit the $4 trillion market cap club this summer and then over the next 18 months the focus will be on the $5 trillion club — both are foundational pieces of the biggest tech trend we have seen in our 25 years covering tech stocks on the Street.”

The $4 trillion leg resolved correct — Nvidia crossed $4 trillion on July 9, 2025 and Microsoft followed later in July 2025 — and Nvidia reached $5 trillion in late October 2025; the 18-month $5 trillion window runs to late December 2026.

“Tech stocks will be up over 20% in 2026 as the 2nd/3rd/4th derivatives around the AI Revolution take shape across software/chips/infrastructure.”

Resolves on full-year 2026 tech-sector performance; Ives was still publicly reiterating the 20%+ call in March 2026.

“Apple and Alphabet's Google will announce a formal AI partnership around Gemini in 2026.”

Apple–Google Gemini talks were already being reported in late 2025; the test here is a formal, publicly announced partnership between the two companies during calendar 2026.

“The Apple-Google AI partnership and resulting subscription service will drive Apple's market cap to $5 trillion in 2026.”

Ives' accompanying $350 Apple price target (raised from $320 on December 8, 2025) implies roughly a $5 trillion valuation; resolves on whether Apple's market cap touches $5 trillion during 2026.

“The reality is there's one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution, and that's Nvidia, and numbers are significantly underestimated — 15% to 20% at a minimum going into 2026. You put that together, I think we're looking at a $250 stock in a base case [by the end of 2026].”

Nvidia traded around $227 on September 22, 2026 (market cap ~$5.6 trillion), about 10% below the $250 base case with roughly a quarter left in the year.

“Musk is now driving Tesla into its next stage of growth as "wartime CEO" and we expect Robotaxis to be rolled out aggressively to over 30 US cities in 2026.”

Resolves at the end of 2026 on whether Tesla's robotaxi service is operating in more than 30 U.S. cities.

“Heading into 2026 this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026…as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA.”

Resolves on Tesla's market capitalization at the end of 2026 (base case $2 trillion, bull case $3 trillion).

“Within the next three years, 70% of Microsoft's enterprise installed base will be on the company's artificial-intelligence-driven functionality.”

Deadline is March 2027; Microsoft reports Copilot seat milestones rather than an installed-base penetration rate, so resolution will rest on disclosed paid-seat counts versus its ~450 million commercial Microsoft 365 seats.

“Our bullish view is that investors are still not fully appreciating the tidal wave of growth on the horizon from the $2 trillion of spending over the next 3 years coming from enterprise and government spending around AI technology and use cases — a once in a generation 4th Industrial Revolution — and we believe tech stocks will have a very strong second half of the year.”

The three-year spending window runs to mid-2028; the shorter-term call was borne out, as tech stocks rallied strongly in the second half of 2025.

“I believe this is going to be a trillion-dollar company in the next two to three years. There's no company that has what they have when it comes to software and use cases — price target raised from $160 to $200 on continued hyper growth demand for the company's AI product suite.”

Palantir's market cap was about $432 billion when he made the call; it would need to roughly double again by August 2028.

“We are raising our price target on Tesla to $600 from $500 to reflect our view that an accelerated AI path for the company is now on the horizon and investors are underestimating the transformation underway at the company... We believe Tesla is taking major steps in advancing its AI Revolution path with autonomous and robotics front and center heading into 2026.”

The 12-month window closed September 26, 2026 with Tesla trading around $375 (close on September 21, 2026), roughly 38% below the $600 target; closing that gap in the final trading days was not remotely plausible. The underlying thesis (autonomy and robotics driving re-rating) did not produce the predicted price outcome in the stated window.

“Heading into 2024 we believe the tech sector is set up for an acceleration of spending around cloud and AI spending that we believe is being significantly underestimated by the Street. While IT budgets are expected to be up modestly in 2024, we believe cloud and AI driven spending will be up 20%-25% over the next year with use cases now exploding across the enterprise and consumer landscape.”

Public cloud end-user spending grew roughly 20% in 2024 on Gartner's tracking, and AI infrastructure/model spending grew far faster, putting combined cloud-and-AI spending growth in or above his 20%-25% range.

“We believe this is a $4 trillion market cap by 2025. At the end of the day, Apple continues to play chess while others are playing checkers.”

Apple touched a $4 trillion market capitalization for the first time on October 28, 2025, inside his 'by 2025' horizon.

“Palantir is the 'Messi of AI' — price target raised to $30 following its fourth-quarter results, implying about 40% upside.”

Palantir cleared $30 in August 2024 and traded near $100 by February 2025, far above the 12-month target.

“Microsoft price target raised to $500 from $475: Copilot represents Microsoft's 'iPhone moment… as this AI revolution plays out across the tech ecosystem over the coming years with Nvidia and Microsoft leading the way as this $1 trillion AI tidal wave hits the shores of the tech world.'”

Microsoft peaked around $468 in July 2024 and traded near $390 in late March 2025, so the stock did not reach the $500 12-month target; it only crossed $500 in mid-2025.

“Copilot could add between $25 billion and $30 billion to Microsoft's revenue by 2025.”

Microsoft does not break out Copilot revenue, but with roughly 20 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats reported by late 2025, implied annualized Copilot revenue was in the single-digit billions — an order of magnitude below $25–30 billion.

“Expect tech stocks to be up another 15% for the year [2024] — propelled not by multiples but by accelerating growth and earnings, as cloud deployments and enterprise AI spending surpass Street expectations.”

Read as a further 15% gain from mid-July, it missed: the Nasdaq Composite rose only about 4-5% from July 15 to December 31, 2024. Read as a full-year call, tech comfortably beat it, with the Nasdaq up roughly 29% in 2024.

“We are raising our price target on Palantir from $75 to $90 as our recent checks and growing confidence in the company's AI strategy is key to the bull thesis on Palantir for 2025. We believe Palantir has a path to become the next Oracle or Salesforce over the coming years.”

Palantir blew through $90 within two weeks, trading above $100 after its Q4 2024 results in early February 2025 and reaching an all-time high of $207.52 on November 3, 2025.

“We believe Palantir has a 'golden path to become the next Oracle' over the coming years and while the valuation is expensive today we see the Messi of AI as a core winner in the trillions of AI spend over the next few years — 12-month price target raised to $160 from $140.”

Palantir traded above $180 in August 2025 and hit an all-time high of $207.52 on November 3, 2025, exceeding the $160 target well inside the 12-month window.

“Nvidia will push further toward a $5 trillion market cap, likely by early 2026: 'The doubters will continue to be there. But this is really just the next phase of the story.'”

Nvidia became the first company to top and close above a $5 trillion market capitalization on October 29, 2025 — two months after the call and ahead of Ives's 'early 2026' timing. Narrowed from the original bundled entry, which also carried his $210 base / $250 bull price targets.

“We believe tech stocks will be up 25% in 2024 with a Nasdaq 20k level our bull case scenario, as the Street is still significantly underestimating how quickly this AI monetization cycle is playing out among enterprises in the field.”

The Nasdaq Composite rose about 29% in 2024 (closing at 19,310.79) and the Nasdaq-100 returned about 25%, with the Nasdaq-100 eclipsing the 20,000 level for the first time in December 2024 — matching both the base and bull cases.

“Apple price target raised to $300, implying roughly 36% upside, as the iPhone 16 will be the company's most successful iPhone release in its history and 'Apple Intelligence will be the launching pad for the consumer AI Revolution globally.'”

Apple shares never approached $300 during the 12-month target window, trading in the low-to-mid $200s around September 2025; the stock only pushed toward record territory later, after the iPhone 17 cycle.

“Apple will be the first company to hit a $4 trillion market cap in 2025, followed by Nvidia and then Microsoft, driven by a consumer AI supercycle across its installed base — 'we think 20% of the world's population will access AI through an Apple device.'”

All three companies did cross $4 trillion during 2025, but the order was the reverse of Ives' call: Nvidia crossed first in July 2025, Microsoft followed later that month, and Apple only joined in late October 2025.

“Apple will ship more than 240 million iPhones in 2025, setting a new annual record, as AI features in the iPhone 16 spark a multi-year supercycle: 'The AI revolution is coming, not just to the enterprise, but to the consumer, with Cupertino.'”

IDC reported in December 2025 that Apple would ship a record 247.4 million iPhones in calendar 2025, up 6.1% year over year and above the prior 2021 record — clearing the 240 million bar.

“Tech stocks will be up another 25% in 2025 in our base case, driven by the AI Revolution and a reduced regulatory burden: 'The start of this $2 trillion+ of AI spending all began with the Godfather of AI Jensen and Nvidia as they remain the only game in town with their chips the new gold and oil.'”

Tech led the market but fell somewhat short of 25%: the Nasdaq Composite returned 21.2% and the Nasdaq-100 21.0% in 2025, with the technology sector up about 24% and the Magnificent Seven up 24.9%.