AI Prediction Index

Pat Gelsinger

CEO of Intel

@PGelsingerWikipedia

40%
success rate · #93 of 144
0correct4half right1missed2on the clockFull leaderboard
CapabilitiesPartially correct
“We are accelerating our innovation roadmap to ensure we are on a clear path to process performance leadership by 2025: five nodes in four years — Intel 7, Intel 4, Intel 3, Intel 20A and Intel 18A — restoring process performance-per-watt parity in 2024 and leadership in 2025.”

CEO of Intel

Intel delivered Intel 7, Intel 4, Intel 3 and Intel 18A, but cancelled high-volume manufacturing of Intel 20A in September 2024, and 18A only reached high-volume production at Fab 52 in late 2025 with the first Panther Lake SKU shipping at year-end and broad availability in January 2026. The underlying goal of process performance-per-watt parity in 2024 and unquestioned leadership in 2025 was not achieved.

CapabilitiesPartially correct
“Intel will ship at least 100 million NPU-enabled 'AI PCs' with on-device AI acceleration by the end of 2025.”

CEO of Intel

Intel came close but fell just short on its own accounting: the company confirmed in late 2025 that by the end of the year it had shipped 'nearly 100 million' AI PC processors, rather than the 100 million-plus it had repeatedly guided to.

CapabilitiesPartially correct
“Our Meteor Lake product on Intel 4 is ramping rapidly with 40 million units expected in 2024… Together, we expect to ship well over 100 million AI PCs in 2024 and 2025.”

CEO of Intel; letter to shareholders in Intel's 2023 annual report

Intel said through 2024 it would exceed its 40 million AI PC CPU target for the year (helped by counting Lunar Lake and Arrow Lake, not Meteor Lake alone), but the two-year goal fell short: Intel confirmed it had shipped 'nearly 100 million' AI PC processors by the end of 2025, not 'well over 100 million.'

CapabilitiesPartially correct
“Arrow Lake, our lead Intel 20A vehicle, is slated for launch this year [2024]. Our first Intel 18A client platform, Panther Lake, is now in fab as well.”

CEO of Intel; letter to shareholders in Intel's 2023 annual report

Arrow Lake did launch in October 2024, but not on Intel 20A: Intel shelved 20A for high-volume manufacturing in September 2024 and built Arrow Lake's compute tile at TSMC. Panther Lake was indeed in fab and later became Intel's first 18A product, entering high-volume production in late 2025.

“We now expect over $500 million in accelerator revenue in 2H of 2024, with increasing momentum into 2025 based on Gaudi 3's vastly superior TCO as well as our own expanding supply.”

CEO of Intel

Said Apr 25, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024Intel Q1 2024 earnings call, CEO comments, April 25, 2024

On Intel's Q3 2024 earnings call Gelsinger conceded: 'The overall uptake of Gaudi has been slower than we anticipated… As a result, we will not achieve our target of $500 million in revenue for Gaudi in 2024.'