“If you look at the trajectory of improvement, systems like GPT-3 were maybe toddler-level intelligence, and then systems like GPT-4 are more like smart high-schooler intelligence. And then, in the next couple of years, we're looking at PhD-level intelligence for specific tasks.”
Chief Technology Officer, OpenAI (at the time); later co-founder/CEO of Thinking Machines Lab
Said Jun 8, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2026'AI Everywhere' fireside chat, Dartmouth Thayer School of Engineering, 8 June 2024 (video later posted to X)
The 'couple of years' window runs to the end of 2026. Frontier models already exceed human-PhD baselines on some narrow benchmarks, but whether that meets Murati's 'PhD-level intelligence for specific tasks' bar is a judgement to be made at the deadline.