Creator of Keras; co-founder of the ARC Prize Foundation and Ndea (formerly Google senior staff engineer)
“ARC-4 is in the works, to be released early 2027. ARC-5 is also planned. The final ARC will probably be 6-7. The point is to keep making benchmarks until it is no longer possible to propose something that humans can do and AI can't. AGI ~2030.”
Co-founder, ARC Prize Foundation and Ndea; creator of Keras
Notable because Chollet is widely cast as an AGI skeptic; the post drew attention (including from OpenAI's Noam Brown) for putting his AGI estimate within about five years.
“We'll be releasing a v2 of the [ARC-AGI] benchmark early next year (human testing is currently being finalized). Why? Because AGI progress in 2025 is going to need a better compass than v1.”
Creator of Keras and the ARC-AGI benchmark; co-founder, ARC Prize Foundation
ARC-AGI-2 was released on March 24, 2025, alongside the launch of ARC Prize 2025, comfortably within the 'early next year' window.
“Early data points suggest that the upcoming ARC-AGI-2 benchmark will still pose a significant challenge to o3, potentially reducing its score to under 30% even at high compute (while a smart human would still be able to score over 95% with no training).”
Creator of Keras; co-founder of the ARC Prize Foundation and Ndea (formerly Google senior staff engineer)
When ARC-AGI-2 launched in March 2025, ARC Prize estimated o3-preview-low would score ~4% and o3-high only 15–20% even at very high compute; subsequent official testing put o3 (medium) at roughly 3%. Every measured or estimated o3 configuration fell far below the 30% ceiling Chollet predicted.