Adam Jonas

Head of Global Autos & Shared Mobility Research, Morgan Stanley

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Self-Driving

“Potential initial commercial introduction [of a Tesla robotaxi] could be late 2025 or 2026.”

Adam Jonas Wall Street

Managing Director and auto/shared-mobility equity analyst, Morgan Stanley

Said Oct 2, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2026Morgan Stanley research note previewing Tesla's 'We, Robot' event, October 2, 2024 (quoted by Teslarati)

Deadline is end-2026, but the call already looks satisfied: Tesla began paid robotaxi rides (with in-car safety monitors) in Austin on June 22, 2025, slightly ahead of Jonas's late-2025/2026 window.

Jobs & Economy

“In the United States, we forecast 40,000 humanoid units by 2030.”

Adam Jonas Wall Street

Head of Global Autos & Shared Mobility Research, Morgan Stanley

Said Jul 23, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030Morgan Stanley 'Thoughts on the Market' podcast, 'Robots in Our Near Future,' July 23, 2024

Narrowed from the full 40,000 (2030) / 8 million (2040) / 63 million (2050) series; resolves on the installed base of humanoid robots in the US at year-end 2030.