“So let's talk about AGI in general: the Anthropic timeline of 2028 seems like a good personal planning starting point. Even if you're wrong, you probably weren't going to do a lot of projects within the next 3 years anyway.”

Gwern Branwen Researcher

Pseudonymous independent AI researcher and writer, Gwern.net

Said Nov 13, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2028Dwarkesh Podcast, 'Gwern — Anonymous writer who predicted AI trajectory on $12K/year salary' (recorded August 13, 2024; published November 13, 2024)

Gwern adopts Anthropic's ~2028 AGI timeline as his working planning assumption; resolvable at the end of 2028. A transcript of the same passage is mirrored at https://gwern.net/interview-dwarkesh.

CapabilitiesCorrect

“Video generation is the next modality that will fall: the RNN, GAN, and Transformer video generation models all showed that video is not that intrinsically hard, it's just computationally expensive, and diffusion models appear to be about to eat video generation the way they've been eating everything else; morally, video is solved, and now it's about engineering & scaling up, but that can take a long time and whoever does it probably won't release checkpoints.”

Gwern Branwen Researcher

Independent AI researcher and essayist, Gwern.net

Said May 28, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2024Gwern.net, "Scaling Hypothesis Revisited: GPT-3's 2ⁿᵈ Anniversary & Looking Forward 2 Years", May 28, 2022

Video generation was indeed the next modality to fall on roughly this timetable, and via diffusion: Runway Gen-2 (2023), OpenAI's diffusion-transformer Sora (announced February 2024, released December 2024), Google Veo and Kling all arrived within the essay's 2023–2024 horizon, with progress driven mainly by engineering and scale. The hedged sub-claim about checkpoints held for the frontier leaders (Sora and Veo remained closed), though some open-weight video models — Stable Video Diffusion, Mochi 1, HunyuanVideo — were released.