Co-founder and Senior Maverick, WIRED; author of 'The Inevitable'
“My prediction: By 2026, Google's main product will not be search but AI.”
Deadline runs to the end of 2026. Search advertising still supplies the large majority of Alphabet's revenue, though Google reframed Search around AI Mode at I/O 2026, so resolution will hinge on how 'main product' is judged.
“My prediction is that in 10 years now, training data won't be important. All the large language models require scaling huge methods of data... So I think in 10 years, we'll have abilities of doing reasoning without needing to have millions of examples.”
Deadline is 2034; as of now frontier models still depend on massive pretraining corpora, though sample-efficient reasoning via RL and test-time compute is an active trend.
“By 2049, most smartphones will be replaced by smart glasses. When billions of people living in urban areas wear these smart glasses, what they see is the superposition of the real world and the virtual world, thus forming the 'mirror world.'”
Target date is 2049; wording is an English rendering of the Chinese-language edition.
“By 2049, everyone will have an intelligent assistant like a personal secretary, that is, an AI assistant, which will be as common as the GPS navigation software on our mobile phones.”
Target date is 2049; wording is an English rendering of the Chinese-language edition.