“"We strongly believe that our partners will achieve the first examples of quantum advantage this year, leveraging IBM hardware... We continue to make progress in quantum and remain on track to deliver the first large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029."”
Chairman, President and CEO, IBM
In July–August 2026 IBM and partners including Algorithmiq published demonstrations they described as verified quantum advantage on Heron hardware, but whether these count as genuine advantage remains contested — IBM's own quantum lead has framed quantum advantage as a scientific debate rather than a binary milestone.
“"Our generative AI book of business now stands at more than $12.5 billion... We enter 2026 with momentum and in a position of strength, giving us confidence in our full-year expectations of more than 5 percent constant currency revenue growth and an increase of about $1 billion in year-over-year free cash flow" (2025 free cash flow was $14.7 billion).”
Chairman, President and CEO, IBM
Tracking poorly: after a July 14, 2026 profit warning and Q2 revenue of $17.16 billion (up just 1%), IBM cut its 2026 constant-currency revenue growth target to 4–5% on July 22, 2026, while maintaining the ~$1 billion free cash flow increase.
“Hiring in back-office functions such as human resources will be suspended or slowed; of the roughly 26,000 non-customer-facing roles at IBM, "I could easily see 30% of that getting replaced by AI and automation over a five-year period" — roughly 7,800 jobs.”
Said May 1, 2023Deadline May 1, 2028Bloomberg News interview, 1 May 2023 The five-year window runs to May 2028. IBM has since said AI agents took over work previously done by a few hundred HR staff while the company hired in engineering and sales, so the 30%/7,800 figure is not yet settled.
“"IBM is charting the next frontier in quantum computing... Our expertise across mathematics, physics, and engineering is paving the way for a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer — one that will solve real-world challenges and unlock immense possibilities for business." Delivered by 2029, IBM Quantum Starling is expected to be the world's first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer, running 100 million quantum operations on 200 logical qubits — 20,000 times more operations than today's quantum computers.”
IBM says it remains on track: the Loon and Nighthawk processors were unveiled in November 2025, and Krishna reaffirmed the 2029 Starling target on IBM's Q1 2026 earnings call.
“"I think that in 2028 or 2029, you'll see it [quantum computing] have a measurable impact on our top line and bottom line."”
Made the same week IBM and Algorithmiq announced research they billed as a demonstration of quantum advantage; IBM does not yet break out material quantum revenue.
“You've got to start with overall productivity. Artificial intelligence, today's form, is going to generate $4 trillion of annual productivity before the end of the decade. That is incredible economic competitiveness for companies and nations.”
Resolves against estimates of annual global productivity/output gains attributable to generative AI by the end of 2029; Krishna has repeated the $4 trillion figure since (e.g. SXSW 2025), while other houses have since published higher ranges.
“Filling a one-gigawatt AI data center costs about $80 billion today, so the roughly 100 GW being announced implies about $8 trillion of capital — requiring roughly $800 billion of annual profit just to service it, and on a five-to-seven-year payback that means $1–2 trillion of incremental annual revenue: "That much incremental revenue I don't believe is there... It's my view that there's no way you're going to get a return on that" (compounded by AI accelerators that must be used within about five years before being replaced).”
Resolves against the five-to-seven-year payback window Krishna invoked (i.e. by roughly 2032): the test is whether the AI buildout produces the $1–2 trillion of incremental annual revenue his arithmetic requires. Krishna simultaneously argued AI is not a bubble and that generative AI will unlock trillions of dollars of enterprise productivity.
“"By the end of the 2030s, we are now pretty convinced this is a trillion dollars of value" — quantum computing will represent a trillion dollars of economic value by the end of the 2030s.”
Krishna tied the figure to quantum applications in batteries, materials, fusion energy and drug discovery; the 'value' metric is not precisely defined, which will complicate eventual scoring.
“I think the number is going to be more like 20-30% of the code could get written by AI — not 90%. Are there some really simple use cases? Yes, but there's an equally complicated number of ones where it's going to be zero.”
Krishna was rejecting Dario Amodei's claim that AI would write 90% of code within three to six months; by the end of that window the best public figures from heavy AI adopters clustered in Krishna's range — Satya Nadella said 20-30% of code in Microsoft repositories was AI-written (April 2025) and Sundar Pichai cited roughly 30% at Google. No 90%-of-all-code milestone arrived in the implied window, though some individual firms reported higher shares later in 2026.
“Our generative AI book of business now stands at more than $5 billion inception-to-date, up nearly $2 billion quarter over quarter... we're well-positioned for 2025 and beyond and expect revenue growth of at least five percent and free cash flow of about $13.5 billion this year.”
Chairman, President and CEO, IBM
IBM's full-year 2025 revenue was $67.5 billion, up 8% (6% at constant currency), clearing the 'at least five percent' target, and free cash flow came in at $14.7 billion, above the ~$13.5 billion guided; the generative AI book of business reached more than $12.5 billion by year-end.