AI Prediction Index

Kevin Roose

Technology columnist, The New York Times; co-host of the Hard Fork podcast

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success rate · #122 of 144
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AGI & Superintelligence
“I believe that very soon — probably in 2026 or 2027, but possibly as soon as this year — one or more A.I. companies will claim they've created an artificial general intelligence, or A.G.I., which is usually defined as something like 'a general-purpose A.I. system that can do almost all cognitive tasks a human can do.'”
Kevin RooseReporter / Media

Technology columnist, The New York Times; co-host of the Hard Fork podcast

Said Mar 14, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027Kevin Roose, 'Powerful A.I. Is Coming. We're Not Ready.', The New York Times, March 14, 2025

Resolves if a major AI company explicitly claims to have built AGI by the end of 2027; no leading lab has made such an unqualified claim so far.

Jobs & EconomyIncorrect
“I think that 2024 may be the year that we start to see workers take real action — white-collar workers in fields like law, finance, medicine, media and tech starting to unionize to counteract job losses caused by AI and automation.”
Kevin RooseReporter / Media

Technology columnist, The New York Times; co-host of the Hard Fork podcast

Said Dec 22, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2024Hard Fork, 'Our 2024 Predictions + Jenny Slate Answers Your Hard Questions!', The New York Times, December 22, 2023; operationalized by Roose on Manifold Markets ('Hard Forkasts 2024')

Roose's own operationalized market — requiring significant new AI/automation-driven union activity in at least three of law, finance, medicine, media and tech by December 31, 2024 — resolved NO. No broad white-collar unionization wave against AI job losses materialized in 2024.