Peter Wildeford

“I share this view from @S_OhEigeartaigh that AGI by 2027 likely won't happen. I define AGI as AI that can automate 99% of all 2024-era remote tasks at a cost less than an equivalently skilled human. I think the odds of achieving this by the end of 2027 are 2%.”

Baseline forecast that Wildeford himself later revised upward to ~8%; resolves at the end of 2027.

“I think AGI by end of 2027 should be ~8% now. [AGI defined as AI that can automate 99% of all 2024-era remote tasks at a cost less than an equivalently skilled human.]”

An upward revision from his July 2025 estimate of 2%; resolves at the end of 2027.

“I think I'd forecast: ~2026-2030 -- AI replaces ~all AI researchers; ~2027-2033 -- AI replaces ~all white collar industry; ~2032-2040 -- AI replaces ~all human industry; ~2033-2042 -- All humans dead or obsolete.”

A staged automation timeline; the first milestone (AI replacing ~all AI researchers) resolves by 2030.

“Currently the world doesn't have any operational 1GW+ data centers. However, it is very likely we will see fully operational 1GW data centers before mid-2026.”

Gigawatt-scale sites did come online in the first half of 2026: xAI announced Colossus 2 in Memphis as the world's first gigawatt training cluster in early 2026, and Epoch AI and subsequent reporting counted roughly five facilities reaching 1 GW scale during 2026. The milestone was met, though several of the other GW-class campuses only crossed the threshold later in the year.