“So my P(Doom) is 50% by 2040, which is, like Zvi said, like Jan Leike said, a ballpark figure, so you can also call it 10 to 90.”
Said Dec 26, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2040Theo Jaffee Podcast #10: Liron Shapira — AI doom, FOOM, rationalism, and crypto, December 26, 2023
Deadline is 2040; Shapira has since restated the same 50% figure on his own Doom Debates show.