Managing Partner and Head of Research, Fundstrat Global Advisors
“The S&P 500 will rise to 7,700 in 2026, extending the bull market to a fourth year: 'After 3 years > 20% yearly gains, bull market still alive. The significant Wall of Worry is a tailwind for bull market.'”
The target implied an 11.8% gain from the December 10, 2025 close; the S&P 500 was around 7,230 in late September 2026, roughly 6% below the target with a quarter left.
“2026 will be a year of 'joy, depression, and rally': a possible 15–20% correction in the latter half of the year as the market tests the new Fed chair, before the S&P 500 still finishes 2026 at 7,700.”
As of late September 2026 the S&P 500 was near 7,230; Lee repeated the summer-correction warning in May 2026, and neither the 15–20% drawdown nor the 7,700 year-end level has yet resolved.
“The S&P 500 could hit 15,000 by 2030 — roughly 20% annual gains from here, with earnings growth contributing 12% to 15% and the rest coming from a rising P/E multiple.”
The S&P 500 was near 7,230 in September 2026, up from ~5,470 when the call was made; reaching 15,000 by end-2030 still requires roughly 20% annualized gains.
“Nvidia's revenue could be a trillion dollars by the end of the decade and Nvidia's revenues are $100 billion right now. So Nvidia itself can be a 10x.”
Deadline is end of 2030; Nvidia's annual revenue was roughly $130 billion in the fiscal year ending January 2025, so a 10x from the ~$100 billion run-rate Lee cited remains far off but unresolved.
“The S&P 500 will reach 4,825 by the end of 2023 — a new all-time high above the previous record of 4,821, and well above the Street's average year-end forecast of 4,227.”
The S&P 500 closed 2023 at 4,769.83 — about 1.2% short of Lee's 4,825 target and just below the January 2022 record close of 4,796.56, so the bullish call was nearly right on level but the predicted new all-time high did not occur until January 2024.
“Our 2024 [year end] target is 5,200, which is 20x 2025 EPS of $260 — one of the most bullish S&P 500 targets on Wall Street.”
The S&P 500 closed 2024 at 5,881.63, about 13% above Lee's 5,200 target. He was among the most bullish strategists and directionally right about a second straight 20%+ year, but the level itself was far too low — he raised the target to ~5,800 by June 2024.
“The S&P 500 could end the year at 5,700 or 'maybe even higher' — investors are putting too much weight on the recent hot CPI report: 'Inflation is normalizing, it's just not evident in the total picture.'”
The S&P 500 closed 2024 at 5,881.63, above the 5,700 he called for — consistent with his 'or maybe even higher' framing.
“2025 earnings no longer look like $270. It looks more like $285. And as interest rates moved up, the PE should be higher. So let's say 20 is a more appropriate PE multiple or even 21. Then you get into the 5,800-ish level [for the S&P 500 at year-end 2024].”
The S&P 500 closed 2024 at 5,881.63, within about 1.4% of his upgraded 'about 5,800' call.
“The S&P 500 will rally about 16% to 7,000 by the middle of 2025 before retreating later in the year — 'a tale of two years.'”
The S&P 500 closed the first half of 2025 at 6,204.95 on June 30 — about 11% short of 7,000 — after an April tariff-driven selloff; the index never touched 7,000 at any point in 2025 (2025 peak close: 6,932 on December 23).
“After peaking near 7,000 at mid-year, the S&P 500 will retreat to 6,600 by the end of 2025 — a full-year gain of roughly 9.4% — as the market digests back-to-back 20%+ years.”
The S&P 500 ended 2025 at 6,845.50, up 16.4% — about 3.7% above his 6,600 target, so the level was close but the shape was wrong: the index was only ~6,205 at mid-year and rallied into year-end rather than retreating from a 7,000 peak.
“The S&P 500 will reach at least 7,000 by December, with potential for further gains; the government shutdown is a 'sidebar issue' — 'We would not lean bearish because of shutdowns. If stocks are down, we would be dip buyers.'”
The S&P 500 never reached 7,000 in 2025: it peaked at a 6,932.05 close on December 23 and finished the year at 6,845.50 (+16.4%). His secondary call was right — the shutdown did not derail the rally and dips were bought — but the 7,000 floor was missed by about 1%.
“December will be strong for markets, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching 7,200–7,300 by year-end — a possible 10% gain from current levels.”
The S&P 500 finished 2025 at 6,845.50, roughly 5–7% below the 7,200–7,300 range; December was essentially flat (-0.05% for the month) rather than a 10% melt-up.