CapabilitiesPartially correct
“Many good people at OpenAI believe GPT-5 will be a big leap, but I believe current generative AI has reached a ceiling — GPT-5 will not be significantly better than GPT-4.”
Microsoft co-founder; co-chair of the Gates Foundation
Said Oct 21, 2023Deadline Aug 7, 2025Handelsblatt interview, October 2023 (reported by The Decoder, 21 October 2023)
GPT-5 launched on 7 August 2025 to a widely criticised reception and was broadly judged an incremental rather than transformative step, which commentators read as vindicating Gates. But it did post large benchmark gains over GPT-4 — driven by the reasoning/chain-of-thought advances Gates's 'plateau' framing did not anticipate — so the call was directionally right rather than fully right.