AI Prediction Index

Casey Newton

Founder and editor of Platformer; co-host of 'Hard Fork'

50%
success rate · #84 of 144
0correct1half right0missed0on the clockFull leaderboard
CapabilitiesPartially correct
“"Remarkable Alexa" underwhelms. With ChatGPT free to all, the long-delayed LLM-powered upgrade to Alexa fails to attract many buyers at the rumored price of $5 to $10 a month. By the end of the year Amazon realizes it's better as a perk for Prime subscribers — or, better yet, larded with AI-targeted ads for non-subscribers.”

Founder and editor of Platformer; co-host of 'Hard Fork'

Said Dec 20, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2025Platformer, '15 predictions for 2025', December 20, 2024

Amazon never sold Alexa+ at the rumored $5–$10: at its February 2025 unveiling it was priced at $19.99/month but free for Prime members from day one, so the 'Prime perk' outcome was the launch design rather than an end-of-year retreat, and early access drew tens of millions of users. Newton was right in substance that it would not stand as a mass-market paid subscription and would be monetized with advertising — Amazon began placing Sponsored Products in Alexa+ shopping conversations and display ads on Alexa+ device home screens during 2025.