AI Prediction Index

Alan Turing

Founder of computer science

50%
success rate · #79 of 144
0correct1half right0missed0on the clockFull leaderboard
CapabilitiesPartially correct
“By the year 2000, machines will be able to fool 30% of human judges during a five-minute text conversation.”

Founder of computer science

Said Oct 1950Deadline Dec 31, 2000Computing Machinery and Intelligence, Mind (1950)

Not achieved by 2000, but modern language models now routinely pass five-minute conversational tests: controlled 2024 studies found GPT-4 judged human well above Turing's 30% threshold. Right about the destination, ~25 years off on the date.