AI Prediction Index

Donald Trump

President of the United States (Executive Orders on nuclear energy, incl. EO 14299/14301)

@realDonaldTrumpWikipedia

60%
success rate · #57 of 144
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“"Within 270 days of the date of this order, the Secretary shall... seek to demonstrate an initial operating capability of the [American Science and Security] Platform for at least one of the national science and technology challenges" — i.e. a working Genesis Mission AI science platform by August 21, 2026.”

President of the United States

The deadline has passed but the outcome is not yet publicly adjudicable: DOE contracted Accenture Federal Services in April 2026 for an 'early operating capability' sprint on the critical-minerals (CM2US) challenge and demonstrated a platform build at the July 22, 2026 Genesis Mission Summit, but DOE has not publicly confirmed that formal initial operating capability was demonstrated by August 21, 2026, and independent coverage of the summit called the mission 'not yet measurable.'

“Under the last year of Biden, China added 11 times as much power generation capacity as did the United States... Under the Trump administration... we will be adding at least as much electric capacity as China. We think we're going to catch them and maybe even have something a little bit extra.”

President of the United States

Not yet due (end of term, January 2029), but early data run strongly against it: China added over 500 GW of new generating capacity in 2025 versus roughly 60-65 GW of US utility-scale additions projected by the EIA.

“The United States will have 10 new large nuclear reactors under construction by 2030 and 5 GW of power uprates at existing plants, on the way to deploying 300 GW of net new nuclear capacity — quadrupling capacity to 400 GW — by 2050, in large part to power AI data centers.”

President of the United States (Executive Orders on nuclear energy, incl. EO 14299/14301)

Said May 23, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2030Utility Dive, May 28, 2025 (Executive Orders signed May 23, 2025)

No new large reactor construction had started as of September 2026; DOE selected TVA and Holtec for a large-reactor deployment milestone in December 2025, while progress so far has been concentrated in test reactors and SMRs.

“Within 180 days of this order, the Assistant to the President for Science and Technology, the Special Advisor for AI and Crypto, and the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs... shall develop and submit to the President an action plan to achieve the policy set forth in section 2 of this order.”

President of the United States

The White House released 'Winning the Race: America's AI Action Plan' on July 23, 2025, essentially on the 180-day deadline (one day past it), delivering the mandated plan.

“We'll be putting a tariff on of approximately 100 percent on chips and semiconductors, but if you're building in the United States of America, there's no charge, even though you're building and you're not producing yet.”

President of the United States

No ~100% semiconductor tariff took effect. The Section 232 proclamation Trump signed on January 14, 2026 imposed only a narrow 25% tariff on certain advanced semiconductors effective January 15, 2026, with Commerce signalling that higher rates might follow for firms that do not invest in US production.

“There must be only One Rulebook if we are going to continue to lead in AI. We are beating ALL COUNTRIES at this point in the race, but that won't last long if we are going to have 50 States, many of them bad actors, involved in RULES and the APPROVAL PROCESS. [Trump said he would sign the preemption executive order in the coming days.]”

President of the United States

Said Dec 8, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025Truth Social post, reported by CNN Business, December 8, 2025

Trump signed the executive order 'Ensuring a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence,' directing federal agencies to challenge and preempt state AI laws, on December 11, 2025 — three days after the post.

“Stargate is "a new American company that will invest $500 billion at least in AI infrastructure in the United States and very, very quickly, moving very rapidly, creating over 100,000 American jobs almost immediately."”

President of the United States

Nothing close to 100,000 jobs appeared 'almost immediately': Bloomberg reported the flagship Abilene site was contractually guaranteed only 57 full-time positions, and by mid-2026 Oracle described roughly 9,000 temporary construction jobs and about 1,000 eventual permanent jobs there. OpenAI's own September 2025 expansion projected 'over 25,000 onsite jobs' across five new sites as a forward-looking estimate, well short of 100,000 delivered in 2025.

“Executive Order "Launching the Genesis Mission": "Within 60 days of the date of this order, the Secretary [of Energy] shall identify and submit to the APST a detailed list of at least 20 science and technology challenges of national importance that the Secretary assesses to have potential to be addressed through the Mission."”

President of the United States

DOE identified 26 Genesis Mission National Science and Technology Challenges — exceeding the 20 minimum — which were published on February 12, 2026 following the APST's 30-day review window, timing consistent with an on-time submission (the exact internal submission date to the APST was not made public).