AI Prediction Index

Mitchell Kapor

Founder of Lotus Development Corporation; co-founder, Electronic Frontier Foundation

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“By 2029 no computer — or 'machine intelligence' — will have passed the Turing Test.”

Founder of Lotus Development Corporation; co-founder, Electronic Frontier Foundation

Said 2002Deadline Dec 31, 2029Long Bets, Bet #1 (Kapor vs. Kurzweil), registered 2002

The inaugural Long Bets wager, $20,000 against Ray Kurzweil, remains open until the end of 2029 under detailed agreed rules (multi-hour adversarial interviews with human judges and human foils); neither side has conceded, and claimed 'passes' such as Eugene Goostman in 2014 did not meet the bet's terms.