AI Prediction Index

Ashok Elluswamy

Vice President of AI Software (Autopilot), Tesla

@aelluswamy

50%
success rate · #59 of 144
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“[On when Robotaxi/Cybercab rides will be available around the clock:] Next month or so. The next tech to merge on the v15 plan will enable it.”

Vice President of AI Software (Autopilot), Tesla

Said Sep 4, 2026Deadline Oct 31, 2026Ashok Elluswamy on X, September 4, 2026, reported by Teslarati

Tesla's paid Robotaxi service currently runs roughly 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. in seven US markets; 24-hour operation is tied to the next module of the FSD v15 stack, pointing to an October 2026 deployment.

“Unsupervised mileage has increased at double-digit growth rates per week since the beginning of the year. We expect to continue growing at such a large rate through the rest of this year.”

Vice President of AI Software (Autopilot), Tesla

Tesla disclosed more than 380,000 unsupervised Robotaxi miles across six cities at the Q2 2026 call; by mid-August 2026 Elluswamy said the fleet had passed one million unsupervised miles, consistent with continued rapid growth so far.

“Within the next 15 years, AI-based software could become capable of performing most human tasks, whether spreadsheets or even robotic athletics.”

Vice President of AI Software (Autopilot and FSD), Tesla

Deadline is 2040; Elluswamy tied the claim to Tesla's 'sustainable abundance' mission.

Self-DrivingIncorrect
“Miles between critical interventions — like you mentioned, Elon, we already made a 100x improvement with 12.5 from the starting of this year. And then with the v13 release, we expect to be a 1000x from January of this year on production software.”

Vice President of AI Software (Autopilot), Tesla

Said Oct 23, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024Tesla Q3 2024 earnings call, October 23, 2024

FSD v13 shipped in December 2024, but Tesla never published intervention data and crowdsourced datasets (the same ones Musk has cited) showed roughly 440–500 miles between critical disengagements — about a 2x gain over v12.5, not the ~10x implied by a 1000x-from-January figure. The companion claim that FSD would cross human miles-per-collision by Q2 2025 also failed.

Self-DrivingPartially correct
“We continue to operate our fleet in Austin without anyone in the driver's seat... As Elon mentioned, we are on track to remove the person from inside the car altogether, starting with Austin. [Musk on the same call: 'We are expecting to have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year.']”

Vice President of AI Software (Autopilot), Tesla

Said Oct 22, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025Tesla Q3 2025 earnings call, October 22, 2025

Tesla began testing Robotaxis in Austin with no occupants in mid-December 2025, but paying customers still rode with safety monitors through year-end; public driverless rides without a safety monitor only began on January 22, 2026, and then only for a small subset of the fleet — well short of 'no safety drivers in large parts of Austin' by the end of 2025.

“In the meantime, we're going to also release a V14 version for Hardware 3. This will be a distilled version of the same V14 software that we released for Hardware 4. And people should be able to start the drives from Park state and basically have all the features that V14 for Hardware 4 has, and that's expected to come end of June.”

Vice President of AI Software (Autopilot), Tesla

Said Apr 22, 2026Deadline Jun 30, 2026Tesla Q1 2026 earnings call, April 22, 2026

Tesla began rolling out FSD v14 'Lite' (firmware 2026.20.5.1) to Hardware 3 early-access customers on June 29, 2026, with release notes describing distillation of HW4 v14 intelligence plus parking, unparking and reversing; wide release followed on July 21, 2026.