AI Prediction Index

Kathleen Hicks

U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense

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success rate · #138 of 144
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“Since we need to break through barriers and catalyze change with urgency, we've set a big goal for Replicator: to field attritable autonomous systems at a scale of multiple thousands, in multiple domains, within the next 18 to 24 months.”

U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense

The Replicator goal was not met by the August 2025 deadline: a September 2025 Congressional Research Service report noted DoD had fielded only 'hundreds' rather than thousands of uncrewed systems by that time, and exact numbers remain classified. DoD leaders characterized Replicator as a 'successful transition' of capability, and the portfolio was later moved to U.S. Special Operations Command.