AI Prediction Index

Noah Smith

Economics commentator and author of the Noahpinion newsletter

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“The amount of [AI-provided] expertise available to a layperson will, by 2029, far far exceed the amount that the Aum cultists could muster in the 90s. It seems likely to far exceed the total expertise of either the U.S. or the Soviet bioweapons program.”

Economics commentator and author of the Noahpinion newsletter

Said Aug 28, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2029Noahpinion, 'Here's how we're all going to die', August 28, 2026

Deadline is end-2029; judgeable against frontier-model biosecurity evaluations of uplift available to non-expert users.