AI Prediction Index

Andy Jassy

President and CEO, Amazon

@ajassyWikipedia

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“With such strong demand for our existing offerings and seminal opportunities like AI, chips, robotics, low earth orbit satellites, we expect to invest about $200 billion in capital expenditures across Amazon in 2026, and anticipate strong long-term return on invested capital.”

CEO, Amazon

Context: Amazon's 2025 capex was roughly $131 billion; the $200 billion plan was already raised to about $220 billion in July 2026, so the figure will likely be exceeded, but it resolves on full-year 2026 results.

“We now expect to spend approximately $220 billion in capital expenditures in 2026 — higher memory costs pushing the number up from our prior estimate of about $200 billion — and we still will not have enough capacity to meet demand.”

CEO, Amazon

Said Jul 30, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026Amazon Q2 2026 earnings call, July 30, 2026 (reported by CNBC)

Supersedes the February 2026 ~$200 billion guide; AWS backlog was reported at $496 billion in the same quarter. Resolves on Amazon's full-year 2026 capex.

“"As we roll out more Generative AI and agents, it should change the way our work is done. We will need fewer people doing some of the jobs that are being done today... in the next few years, we expect that this will reduce our total corporate workforce as we get efficiency gains from using AI extensively across the company."”

President and CEO, Amazon

Amazon announced large corporate job cuts later in 2025, but the company attributed them chiefly to bureaucracy and culture rather than AI, and the 'next few years' window runs to 2028, so the AI-attribution part remains open.

Energy & Data CentersPartially correct
“Amazon plans to spend about $75 billion on capital expenditures in 2024 and expects an even higher number in 2025, driven primarily by generative AI: 'It is a really unusually large, maybe once-in-a-lifetime type of opportunity.'”

CEO, Amazon

Said Oct 31, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024Amazon Q3 2024 earnings call, October 31, 2024 (reported by CNBC)

Amazon's 2024 capital investments came in at roughly $83 billion, about 10% above the $75 billion Jassy cited two months before year-end; the accompanying call that 2025 would be higher was correct (2025 capex reached ~$131.8 billion).

Energy & Data CentersPartially correct
“We spent $26.3 billion in capex in Q4, and I think that is reasonably representative of what you expect an annualized capex rate in 2025 [i.e. roughly $100 billion]. The vast majority of that capex spend is on AI for AWS.”

CEO, Amazon

Said Feb 6, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2025Amazon Q4 2024 earnings call, February 6, 2025 (reported by CNBC)

Amazon did blow past $100 billion, but the run-rate forecast badly understated the ramp: guidance was lifted to ~$125 billion in October 2025 and full-year 2025 capex finished at about $131.8 billion, roughly a third above the February figure.