AI Prediction Index

Dan Schwarz

Co-founder and CEO, FutureSearch; former CTO of Metaculus

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“My central case has Anthropic's ARR reaching $115B by May 2027 (p10 $85B, p90 $162B), with Claude Code contributing about $18.5B, the IPO pricing around November 24, 2026, and a $1.65 trillion market cap 90 days after its IPO.”

Co-founder and CEO, FutureSearch; former CTO of Metaculus

Forecast made the day Anthropic's S-1 became public (Q2 2026 revenue of $11.6B and first operating profit); resolves on Anthropic's reported ARR in May 2027 and on its market capitalization 90 days after the IPO.