Bryan Caplan

“No AI will be able to get A's on 5 out of 6 of my [labor economics] exams by January of 2029. (By January 30, 2029, an AI selected by Matthew Barnett takes Caplan's six most recent midterms, graded on his students' scale, with an A- counting as an A; $500 at stake.)”

Bryan CaplanEconomist

Professor of Economics, George Mason University; author of the 'Bet On It' Substack

Still open until January 30, 2029; Caplan publicly wobbled in March/April 2023 after GPT-4 scored 73/100 (an A) on one of his midterms, writing that he was not conceding but gave himself only a 10–15% chance of winning.

“My end-of-the-world bet with @ESYudkowsky is now in its NINTH year. I WILL win on January 1, 2030. Disagree? I'll bet anyone with a public reputation at 10:1. How CAN you bet on the end of the world? Simple: The optimist prepays the pessimist.”

Bryan CaplanEconomist

Professor of Economics, George Mason University

Restates Caplan's side of the January 2017 bet in which he prepaid Eliezer Yudkowsky $100 for $200 CPI-adjusted if the world has not been ended by nonaligned AI before 12:00am GMT on 1 January 2030.

“I'm skeptical that AI will do anything dramatic anytime soon. I think AI will be like electricity or the internet: another new technology that will take decades to work its ultimate magic. [Bet terms: Holden wins $5,000 if, by the end of 2044, there has been at least one year for which it is plausible that real Gross World Product was at least 4x the real GWP of 2024, or at most 1/2 the real GWP of 2024. Otherwise, Bryan wins $1,000.]”

Bryan CaplanEconomist

Professor of economics, George Mason University; author of the Bet On It blog

Resolves at the end of 2044; Caplan is himself the designated adjudicator, with Alex Tabarrok, Maxwell Tabarrok and Zixuan Ma as backups.