AI Prediction Index

Palmer Luckey

Founder, Anduril Industries

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“It's not imminent, but it's coming. So Anduril has an internal policy called China 27. The idea is that anything we are working on, anything that we are investing in, needs to be built with the assumption that sometime in 2027, China is going to move on Taiwan. And I might be wrong on this.”

Founder, Anduril Industries

Luckey frames this as Anduril's internal planning assumption and explicitly hedges ('I might be wrong'); resolves on whether China takes military action against Taiwan during 2027.

“I aim for an operational facility [Arsenal-1] with fighter jets coming off the line within 24 months. It has to be this fast because we don't have time for business as usual.”

Founder, Anduril Industries

Anduril began YFQ-44A Fury production at Arsenal-1 in March 2026 — three months ahead of its own July 2026 target — and completed the first Ohio-built Fury on July 27, 2026, 557 days after the January 16, 2025 announcement, well inside the 24-month window.

CapabilitiesPartially correct
“Anduril will deliver roughly 100 units of its new AI-powered helmet and digitally-enhanced eyewear system — EagleEye — to select U.S. Army personnel during the second quarter of the upcoming calendar year [2026]. 'We're already in the production process for many of the components that are going into that.'”

Founder, Anduril Industries

Said Oct 13, 2025Deadline Jun 30, 2026DefenseScoop, Anduril media roundtable, October 13, 2025

By August 2026 Anduril had put SBMC/EagleEye phase-one hardware in the 'low hundreds' in Army hands, including testing with the 75th Ranger Regiment, roughly matching the promised volume and timeframe — but Anduril clarified those phase-one units were company-owned prototypes rather than formal contractual deliveries, and phase-two prototype testing has slipped to early 2027.