AI Prediction Index

Gina Raimondo

U.S. Secretary of Commerce

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“By 2030, the U.S. will have at least two new large-scale clusters of leading-edge logic fabs. Each cluster will include a robust supplier ecosystem, R&D facilities to continuously innovate new process technologies, and specialized infrastructure — and each will employ thousands of workers.”

U.S. Secretary of Commerce

Deadline is end of 2030; Intel (Arizona/Ohio), TSMC (Arizona) and Samsung (Texas) leading-edge projects are the candidate clusters, several with announced delays.

“Our investments in leading-edge logic chip manufacturing will put this country on track to produce roughly 20% of the world's leading-edge logic chips by the end of the decade. That's a big deal. Why is that a big deal? Because folks, today we're at zero.”

U.S. Secretary of Commerce

Resolves against world leading-edge logic output share in 2030; the U.S. produced none at the time of the claim, with TSMC Arizona and Intel 18A ramps the main contributors.