“The consensus expects hyperscaler capex to run at roughly 3% of GDP every year from 2027 to 2029, up from 0.3% of GDP in 2019 and 1.4% in 2025 — more than twice the peak of the telecom and fiber buildout. Data-center capex adds 1.7 percentage points in just two years, from 1.4% of GDP in 2025 to 3.1% in 2027, or roughly 0.85 percentage points a year. A cycle that builds at 0.85 percentage points a year can unwind at a similar pace, and that, rather than the buildout itself, is the macro risk if AI demand disappoints.”
Said Aug 6, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2029Apollo Global Management, 'The AI Capex Boom Is Building Twice as Fast as the Housing Boom,' The Daily Spark, August 6, 2026
Resolves against reported hyperscaler capital expenditure as a share of US nominal GDP for 2027, 2028 and 2029.