“In my original predictions I said that electric car (and I meant battery electric, not hybrids) sales would reach 30% of the US total no earlier than 2027. A bunch of people on twitter claimed I was a pessimist. Now it looks like I was an extreme optimist as it is going to take a real growth spurt to reach even 10% in 2026, i.e., earlier than 2027.”
Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus), MIT; CTO and co-founder of Robust AI
Resolves on full-year 2026 US battery-electric share of new vehicle sales, which Brooks tracks quarterly in the scorecard; the 2026 figure is not yet final.
“Electric cars comprising 30% of all car sales in the US. NET 2027 — it will take until at least 2027.”
Roboticist; MIT Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus); co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; co-founder and CTO of Robust.AI
The deadline (Jan 1, 2027) has not quite passed, but US EV share was below 8.5% for 2025 with a record 10.5% quarter, and 2026 sales have weakened further — Brooks calls 'NET 2027 a solid prediction… itself probably wildly optimistic.'
“The 'next big thing' in AI, beyond deep learning, will show up no earlier than 2023, but certainly by 2027 — and someone is already working on it, with the key papers most likely already published.”
Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus), MIT; co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; CTO and co-founder of Robust AI
The 'BY 2027' window is still open, but Brooks scored this as correct in his 2024 and later scorecards: LLMs were generally accepted as the next big thing in 2023, and the key paper ('Attention Is All You Need', June 2017) predated his prediction.
“Driverless taxi services in 50 major US cities. NET 2028 — it will be at least 2028 before there are 50 major US cities with driverless taxi services.”
Roboticist; MIT Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus); co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; co-founder and CTO of Robust.AI
Driverless ride services operate in only a handful of US metros; Brooks pre-called this NET 2028 prediction as safe in his January 2026 scorecard, saying it is 'not going to happen in 2027.'
“A robot that can provide physical assistance to the elderly over multiple tasks (e.g., getting into and out of bed, washing, using the toilet, etc.) rather than just a point solution. NET 2028.”
Roboticist; MIT Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus); co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; co-founder and CTO of Robust.AI
Brooks called this NET 2028 prediction 18 months early, writing that 'so far we don't have a solid demonstration, i.e., one that works again and again,' for even a single one of these tasks as a point solution.
“A robot that can carry out the last 10 yards of delivery, getting from a vehicle into a house and putting the package inside the front door. Lab demo: NET 2025. Deployed systems: NET 2028.”
Roboticist; MIT Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus); co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; co-founder and CTO of Robust.AI
The 2025 lab-demo floor passed with no such demonstration, and Brooks called the NET 2028 deployment prediction 18 months early on the grounds that there has been no visible progress in eight of the ten years he allotted.
“Here is a CEO of a humanoid robot company saying that they will be in 10% of US households by 2030. Absolutely no technology (even without the problems above) has ever come close to scaling at that rate. The declarations being made about humanoid robots are just not plausible.”
Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus), MIT; CTO and co-founder of Robust AI
Resolves against Brooks only if humanoid robots are in roughly 10% of US households (on the order of 13 million homes) by the end of 2030.
“A major city bans parking and cars with drivers from a non-trivial portion of a city so that driverless cars have free reign in that area. NET 2027. BY 2031. (This will be the starting point for a turning of the tide toward driverless cars.)”
Roboticist; MIT Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus); co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; co-founder and CTO of Robust.AI
Brooks says the NET 2027 floor is safe because 'no cities anywhere (except perhaps Singapore) have even given this any thought'; the BY 2031 upper bound remains open.
“A driverless "taxi" service in a major US city with arbitrary pick up and drop off locations, even in a restricted geographical area. NET 2032. (This is what Uber, Lyft, and conventional taxi services can do today.)”
Roboticist; MIT Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus); co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; co-founder and CTO of Robust.AI
Brooks has not yet called this one; driverless services have expanded within geofenced metros but still steer riders to adjusted pickup and drop-off points rather than arbitrary ones.
“A robot that can navigate around just about any US home, with its steps, its clutter, its narrow pathways between furniture, etc. Expensive product: NET 2030. Affordable product: NET 2035.”
Roboticist; MIT Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus); co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; co-founder and CTO of Robust.AI
Brooks says the 2030 and 2035 product predictions are 'in real danger' of being too optimistic, since there has still been no lab demonstration of the underlying capability.
“Quantum computers. The successful ones will emulate physical systems directly for specialized classes of problems rather than translating conventional general computation into quantum hardware. Think of them as 21st century analog computers. Impact will be on materials and physics computations. [Over the decade through January 1st, 2036.]”
Roboticist; MIT Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus); co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; co-founder and CTO of Robust.AI
Brooks says he will score these five predictions in his January 1 scorecard posts through 2036.
“Self driving cars. In the US the players that will determine whether self driving cars are successful or abandoned are #1 Waymo (Google) and #2 Zoox (Amazon). No one else matters. The key metric will be human intervention rate as that will determine profitability. [Over the decade through January 1st, 2036.]”
Roboticist; MIT Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus); co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; co-founder and CTO of Robust.AI
To be scored by Brooks in his annual scorecards through January 1, 2036.
“Humanoid Robots. Deployable dexterity will remain pathetic compared to human hands beyond 2036. Without new types of mechanical systems walking humanoids will remain too unsafe to be in close proximity to real humans.”
Roboticist; MIT Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus); co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; co-founder and CTO of Robust.AI
Brooks has since elaborated on this in his post "Why Today's Humanoids Won't Learn Dexterity"; the 2036 horizon is open.
“Neural computation. There will be small and impactful academic forays into neuralish systems that are well beyond the linear threshold systems, developed by 1960, that are the foundation of recent successes. Clear winners will not yet emerge by 2036 but there will be multiple candidates.”
Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus), MIT; co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; CTO and co-founder of Robust AI
One of five ten-year predictions Brooks says he will score in his annual January 1 scorecards through January 1, 2036.
“As with self driving cars, most of the early players in humanoid robots will quietly shut up shop and disappear. Those that remain will pivot and redefine what they are doing, without renaming it, to something more achievable and with, finally, plausible business cases. But make no mistake, the successful humanoid robots of tomorrow will be very different from those being hyped today.”
Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus), MIT; CTO and co-founder of Robust AI
Written as commentary on his ten-year technology predictions, which run through January 1, 2036.
“Dexterous robot hands generally available. NET 2030. BY 2040 (I hope!). (Despite some impressive lab demonstrations we have not actually seen any improvement in widely deployed robotic hands or end effectors in the last 40 years.)”
Roboticist; MIT Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus); co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; co-founder and CTO of Robust.AI
The NET 2030 floor has not been reached; Brooks separately predicts deployable dexterity will remain poor compared with human hands even beyond 2036.
“We will have plenty of humanoid robots fifteen years from now, but they will look like neither today's humanoid robots nor humans. And a lot of money will have disappeared, spent on trying to squeeze performance, any performance, from today's humanoid robots. But those robots will be long gone and mostly conveniently forgotten.”
Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus), MIT; CTO and co-founder of Robust AI
Fifteen years from the September 2025 essay puts the horizon at 2040.
“The majority of US cities have the majority of their downtown under such rules [banning parking and cars with drivers so that driverless cars have free reign]. NET 2045.”
Roboticist; MIT Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus); co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; co-founder and CTO of Robust.AI
No US city has yet adopted such rules for any meaningful area, so the 2045 floor is untested.
“The general plan is that humanoid robots will be 'plug compatible' with humans and be able to step in and do the manual things that humans do at lower prices and just as well. In my opinion, believing that this will happen any time within decades is pure fantasy thinking.”
Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus), MIT; CTO and co-founder of Robust AI
'Within decades' is read here as at least two decades from the September 2025 essay, i.e. through 2045.
“A robot that seems as intelligent, as attentive, and as faithful, as a dog. NET 2048. (This is so much harder than most people imagine it to be — many think we are already there; I say we are not at all there.)”
Roboticist; MIT Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus); co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; co-founder and CTO of Robust.AI
Brooks still maintains the 2048 floor, repeating in 2026 that this is 'so much harder than most people imagine it to be.'
“A robot that has any real idea about its own existence, or the existence of humans in the way that a six year old understands humans. NIML — Not In My Lifetime, i.e., not before 2050.”
Roboticist; MIT Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus); co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; co-founder and CTO of Robust.AI
One of five predictions Brooks labels NIML, which he defines as after January 1, 2050, just past his 95th birthday.
“Superintelligent AI systems that can out-think humans will take three centuries to create — not the few years many AI experts believe. "I did not expect my latter life would be spent assuaging people's fears of things that don't exist. I thought we were done with witches."”
Roboticist; MIT Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus); co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; co-founder and CTO of Robust.AI
The three-century figure is Brooks' estimate as reported by the Globe; Max Tegmark, who expects superintelligence soon, responded that Brooks is 'quite out of touch.'
“First dedicated lane where only cars in truly driverless mode are allowed on a public freeway. NET 2021. (This is a bit like current day HOV lanes. My bet is the left most lane on 101 between SF and Silicon Valley.)”
Roboticist; MIT Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus); co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; co-founder and CTO of Robust.AI
No driverless-only lane opened on any US public freeway before 2021 — or since — and Brooks has scored this prediction as accurate in his annual scorecards.
“A deployed driverless package delivery service in a major US city. NET 2023.”
Roboticist; MIT Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus); co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; co-founder and CTO of Robust.AI
No driverless package-delivery service was operating in a major US city before 2023; Brooks noted only campus-bound food/sidewalk robots, and the prediction was counted as accurate in his January 2023 scorecard.
“A robot that can navigate around just about any US home, with its steps, its clutter, its narrow pathways between furniture, etc. Lab demo: NET 2026. (What is easy for humans is still very, very hard for robots.)”
Roboticist; MIT Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus); co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; co-founder and CTO of Robust.AI
No lab demonstration of a robot navigating arbitrary cluttered US homes had appeared by January 2026; Brooks notes that humanoid 'home' demos use movie-set houses with wide clear walkways and no people.
“A conversational agent that both carries long term context, and does not easily fall into recognizable and repeated patterns. Lab demo: NET 2023. Deployed systems: 2025. (Deployment platforms already exist — e.g., Google Home and Amazon Echo — so it will be a fast track from lab demo to wide spread deployment.)”
Roboticist; MIT Panasonic Professor of Robotics (emeritus); co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics; co-founder and CTO of Robust.AI
Large language model assistants with long context windows and persistent memory were demonstrated from 2023 and widely deployed by 2025, matching the timeline he set; Brooks himself says he was 'lucky on that date' for LLMs becoming the next big thing in 2023, while continuing to argue their outputs cannot be trusted.