AI Prediction Index

Kyle Vogt

CEO and co-founder, Cruise (GM)

@kvogtWikipedia

33%
success rate · #95 of 144
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“Cruise will be giving driverless, revenue-generating rides in Phoenix and Austin within 90 days — initially small-scale, with scaled operations to follow next year: "What I'm really excited about is we're going from zero footprint, no maps, no infrastructure on the ground — to our first revenue-generating driverless rides in about 90 days. This is something people thought may take years. It doesn't."”

Co-founder and CEO, Cruise

Cruise soft-launched fully driverless paid rides in Austin and in Chandler, in the Phoenix area, on December 20, 2022 — about 99 days later but inside the stated calendar-year deadline. Initial riders were limited to friends and family of employees rather than the general public.

Self-DrivingIncorrect
“"We're not done. There'll be more this year… Last year, we were operating tens of autonomous vehicles… Next year, there'll be thousands. And then it'll continue at least 10 times growth every year for the foreseeable future."”

Co-founder and CEO, Cruise

Said Aug 4, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2024Slate, August 4, 2023

Instead of 10x growth, Cruise's fleet went to zero: California suspended its permits in October 2023 after a pedestrian-dragging incident, Cruise grounded its robotaxis nationwide, Vogt resigned in November 2023, and GM ended funding of the robotaxi business in December 2024.

Self-DrivingIncorrect
“Cruise is on track — if not ahead of — its goal to reach $1 billion in revenue by 2025, as it scales up new markets and vehicle volume.”

CEO and co-founder, Cruise (GM)

Cruise never came close to $1 billion in revenue: it was losing hundreds of millions per quarter, had its California permits suspended in late 2023, Vogt resigned that November, and GM ended funding for the robotaxi business in December 2024, so 2025 revenue was effectively zero.