“If we look at the revenue potential for quarterly data center revenue once Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra ship in volume, this leads us to a $6 trillion valuation by next year [2026].”
Nvidia briefly topped a $5 trillion market cap in October 2025 and stood at roughly $5.5 trillion in September 2026, after Apple reclaimed the most-valuable-company title in July 2026.
“This will likely complete the first leg in a larger correction, as we mount a bounce that makes a lower high into later 2026. [S&P 500, after a break of the 6,780 'line in the sand' heading toward 6,500–6,300.]”
The first part played out — the S&P 500 broke 6,780 and bottomed at 6,316 on March 30, 2026, inside her 6,500–6,300 target zone; the claim resolves incorrect if the subsequent bounce sets a new all-time high before the end of 2026.
“The data center segment for Nvidia of $320 billion by 2027 would result in 260% growth for Nvidia's data center business from where it stands today.”
Nvidia's data center revenue was $75.2 billion in Q1 FY2027 and $89.0 billion in Q2 FY2027, putting fiscal 2027 on track to far exceed $320 billion; formally resolves with the Q4 FY2027 report in February 2027.
“Nvidia will blow past the $50 billion data center segment mark this evening — one quarter earlier than my original prediction — which puts the company on the path for a $75 billion segment in Q4 of next year.”
Nvidia reported $51.2 billion of data center revenue that evening, and by Q2 FY2027 (July 2026) the segment had already reached $89.0 billion, so the $75 billion Q4 threshold is effectively assured; it formally resolves with the Q4 FY2027 report in February 2027.
“Nvidia has a market cap of $3 trillion today. We believe Nvidia will reach a $10 trillion market cap by 2030 or sooner through a rapid product road map, an impenetrable moat from CUDA, and due to being an AI systems company that provides components well beyond GPUs.”
Nvidia's market cap was roughly $5.5 trillion in September 2026, after briefly touching $5 trillion in October 2025. Kindig doubled this target to $20 trillion by 2030 in November 2025.
“I am raising my 2030 target on Nvidia from $10 trillion to $20 trillion market cap: Nvidia has a credible path to reach a $20 trillion market cap by 2030 with an aggressive product road map for Blackwell, Rubin, Rubin Ultra and eventually Feynman's gigawatt-scale AI factories.”
Nvidia's market cap was roughly $5.5 trillion in September 2026; the thesis assumes data center revenue compounding at about 36% annually through 2030.
“Nvidia is well on its way to reaching my firm's brand-new updated estimate for a $230 billion data center quarter by Q4 of 2030, or $930 billion for the full year.”
Implies roughly 36% annual growth in Nvidia's data center revenue from the ~$194 billion recorded in fiscal 2026; data center revenue reached $89.0 billion in Q2 FY2027.
“I believe Nvidia is capable of out-performing all five FAAMG stocks and will surpass even Apple's valuation in the next five years. Nvidia has a market cap of roughly $550 billion compared to Apple's nearly $2.5 trillion. We believe Nvidia can surpass Apple by capitalizing on the artificial intelligence economy, which will add an estimated $15 trillion to GDP.”
Nvidia passed Apple's market cap in June 2024 and closed ahead of Apple as the world's most valuable company on November 5, 2024 — about two years inside the five-year window. Nvidia held the top spot until Apple reclaimed it in July 2026.
“My firm expects we will see a $200 billion data center segment [for Nvidia] by end of CY2025, propelled forward by the B100, B200 and GB200.”
Nvidia's data center revenue across the four quarters ending January 25, 2026 was about $194 billion ($39.1B, $41.1B, $51.2B and $62.3B) — a few percent short of $200 billion, though the Q4 exit rate of $62.3 billion annualizes to roughly $250 billion.
“The I/O Fund is already tracking a 30% minimum difference between GB200 NVL72 orders and what the Street has estimated for next year. When adding that the DGX B200 systems will be priced 40% higher... it's possible to see about 70% upside next year for Nvidia.”
NVDA returned about 39% in 2025, closing the year at $186.27 from roughly $135 when the call was published, and its 2025 peak of just over $200 implied about 55% upside — short of the ~70% called for.
“We believe 2025 [Big Tech] capex is on track to surpass $405 billion, representing YoY growth of 62% — and even today's elevated numbers could again be revised higher in 2026.”
Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft ended 2025 with roughly $410 billion of combined capital expenditures (about $448 billion including Oracle), clearing the $405 billion mark, and the same four guided to roughly $725 billion for 2026.