AI Prediction Index

Demis Hassabis

CEO, Google DeepMind; Nobel laureate

@demishassabisWikipedia

25%
success rate · #99 of 144
0correct1half right1missed6on the clockFull leaderboard
“Isomorphic Labs expects to have its first clinical trials by the end of 2026.”

Founder and CEO, Isomorphic Labs; CEO, Google DeepMind; 2024 Nobel laureate in Chemistry

This is the revised version of Hassabis's missed end-2025 target; as of September 2026 no Isomorphic Labs trial start has been announced, and the deadline runs to 31 December 2026.

“In the next couple of years, I'd like to see that [the roughly ten years and billions of dollars it takes to design one drug] cut down in a matter of months, instead of years. That's what I think is possible. Perhaps even faster.”

CEO, Google DeepMind and Isomorphic Labs; 2024 Nobel laureate in Chemistry

Resolves against demonstrated design-to-candidate timelines at Isomorphic Labs and peers by end-2027; Isomorphic has not yet started a clinical trial.

“My estimate is sort of 50% chance [of AGI] in the next five years, so by 2030 let's say. So I think there's a good chance that that could happen. [AGI defined as a system consistently matching the full range of human cognitive capabilities.]”

CEO of Google DeepMind; Nobel laureate in Chemistry, 2024

A probability-weighted restatement (50% by 2030) of Hassabis's AGI timeline; resolves on whether a system matching the full range of human cognitive capabilities exists by end-2030.

“I think one day maybe we can cure all disease with the help of AI... I think that's within reach. Maybe within the next decade or so, I don't see why not.”

CEO, Google DeepMind and Isomorphic Labs; 2024 Nobel laureate in Chemistry

Hassabis was answering Pelley's question about whether AI could end all disease; the implied horizon runs to roughly 2035.

CapabilitiesPartially correct
“Some of these agent capabilities [Project Astra] will come to Google products like the Gemini app later this year.”

CEO, Google DeepMind

Said May 14, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2024Google I/O 2024 keynote, May 14, 2024

Gemini Live shipped in August 2024 at the Made by Google event and was billed as the first Project Astra-derived feature, so some capabilities did land in the Gemini app in 2024 — but the signature Astra demo features, live camera and screen sharing, only began rolling out to Gemini users in late March 2025.

HealthcareIncorrect
“We'll hopefully have some AI-designed drugs in clinical trials by the end of the year. That's the plan.”

CEO, Google DeepMind and Isomorphic Labs; 2024 Nobel laureate in Chemistry

Isomorphic Labs did not put any AI-designed drug into clinical trials during 2025. At Davos on 20 January 2026 Hassabis said the company now expects its first clinical trials by the end of 2026, which Reuters described as a delay to the original timeline.