AI Prediction Index

Jack Clark

Co-founder and Head of Policy, Anthropic; author of the Import AI newsletter

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“I now think it's more likely we'll see full RSI [recursive self-improvement] become possible in 2027, whereas before I thought it was more likely in 2028.”

Co-founder and Head of Policy, Anthropic; author of the Import AI newsletter

Clark pulled his recursive-self-improvement timeline forward by a year after the TasteVal benchmark showed frontier models' experimental research taste doubling roughly every three months since December 2025, with the top model exceeding the human expert baseline. Deadline is end of 2027.