AI Prediction Index

Oren Etzioni

Professor emeritus, University of Washington; founding CEO of the Allen Institute for AI; founder of TrueMedia.org

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“I expect a tsunami of misinformation [in the 2024 U.S. election]. I can't prove that. I hope to be proven wrong. But the ingredients are there, and I am completely terrified... You could see a political candidate like President Biden being rushed to a hospital. You could see a candidate saying things that he or she never actually said.”

Professor emeritus, University of Washington; founding CEO of the Allen Institute for AI; founder of TrueMedia.org

The feared AI 'tsunami' did not materialize: post-election analyses (Kapoor & Narayanan's review of 78 election deepfakes for the Knight Institute, and the Harvard Ash Center's 'apocalypse that wasn't') found AI-generated deception had limited reach, with non-AI 'cheap fakes' documented roughly seven times more often. AI content was everywhere, but no deepfake of the kind Etzioni described disrupted the vote.