AI Prediction Index

Ryan Greenblatt

Chief Scientist, Redwood Research

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AGI & Superintelligence
“I now would put ~15% probability [of full automation of AI R&D] by the start of 2029 and a 45% chance by the start of 2033.”
Ryan GreenblattResearcher

Chief Scientist, Redwood Research

Said Aug 20, 2025Deadline Jan 1, 2033Redwood Research blog, 'My AGI timeline updates from GPT-5 (and 2025 so far)', August 2025 (also posted on X, 20 August 2025)

A downward revision from his start-of-2025 view of ~25% by 2029 and ~50% by 2033; the first checkpoint (start of 2029) has not yet arrived.

AGI & Superintelligence
“I expect full automation of AI R&D perhaps somewhere around 2031, 2030. Getting to the 'beats all humans on the job' milestone, maybe my median expectation is around 2033. But if I see AIs fully automating AI R&D, I think I'm expecting that probably within a year.”
Ryan GreenblattResearcher

Chief Scientist, Redwood Research

Said Aug 11, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2033Dwarkesh Podcast, 'Ryan Greenblatt – What happens once AI can automate AI research?', August 11, 2026

Median-timeline forecast: full automation of AI R&D around 2030-2031 and AI that beats all humans on the job around 2033; both deadlines are in the future.