“Asked when he expects a drop-in remote worker replacement: 'Maybe for me, that would be around 2045.' There will be no software-only intelligence explosion — AI will be one moving part among many, like the Industrial Revolution — but full automation will eventually produce explosive growth, with the economy doubling every year or two.”
Said Apr 17, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2045Dwarkesh Podcast — 'AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu', April 17, 2025
Offered as the explicit counter-scenario to the AI 2027 forecast discussed with Scott Alexander and Daniel Kokotajlo; the 2045 figure is Erdil's stated median for a drop-in remote worker, with Besiroglu endorsing similarly long, compute- and diffusion-constrained timelines.