“The Nasdaq will end the year up +10% primarily driven by the AI trade — we're still early in AI and now believe we are entering year 3 of a 5 year bull market that will likely end with the market leveling off rather than a sharp collapse.”
Resolves on the Nasdaq's full-year 2026 price return; Deepwater's own scorecard showed the Nasdaq up ~22% in 2025.
“Hyperscaler Capex growth will be up +50% [in CY26] — The Street is looking for Capex growth for AMZN, GOOG, META, and MSFT to be 33% y/y in CY26, down from 64% growth in CY25. We believe this is low and the AI infrastructure buildout will continue throughout CY26.”
Resolves once the four hyperscalers report full-year 2026 capex; Munster raised his own estimate to ~65% growth in early March 2026.
“We don't expect any of the leading AI companies to go public [in 2026]. While talk of IPOs for OpenAI, xAI, Databricks, Cursor/Anysphere, and Anduril will likely increase, we don't anticipate any of them pursuing an IPO next year. This is a positive sign for the AI trade given it's unlikely the market peaks until these companies have gone public.”
None of the five named companies had listed directly as of late September 2026, though SpaceX's June 2026 IPO (post-xAI merger) and Anthropic's confidential S-1 complicate the scoring; final call at year-end.
“Tesla will begin fully autonomous Robotaxi operations (without a safety driver) in 5 cities [in 2026] — my guess is they launch in 8-10 cities, with 5 (Austin, Dallas, SF, Phoenix, and Vegas) not using a safety driver.”
Tesla was running driverless Model Y and, from September 2026, Cybercab rides in Austin plus service in several other metros; the five-city driver-out count resolves at year-end.
“Tesla will miss delivery expectations for FY26 — the Street is looking for 16%; we believe next year deliveries will be flat to up 5%. A miss on the delivery number doesn't change the Tesla investment case, which is built on FSD, Robotaxi and Optimus.”
Resolves with Tesla's Q4 2026 delivery release in early January 2027; 2025 deliveries were down an estimated ~7%.
“Waymo will be doing +1m weekly paid rides by the end of the year [2026], up from 450k in December 2025 — at 1m rides per week, Waymo would capture about 1.3% of annual rides in the US.”
As of early September 2026 Waymo was reporting roughly 500,000 paid rides per week across ~14 metros, so the 1M/week target remains open.
“Google will be the best performing Mag 7 stock in CY26 — Google is in the strongest position when it comes to a fully integrated AI stack. Gemini is a leading model, its user base is expanding faster than OpenAI's, Search is integrating AI effectively with ads reportedly on the way, and GCP continues to hold its ground in the infrastructure buildout cycle.”
Resolves on full-year 2026 total return rankings among the Magnificent 7.
“Tesla deliveries will decline about 10% in 2025 and then grow 35% in 2026, supported by an improving EV outlook, a healing brand and a new model — 2025 largely doesn't matter; it sets up a major rebound in 2026 and beyond.”
The 2025 leg was close — deliveries fell an estimated ~7% — but the +35% 2026 leg is unresolved, and Munster himself cut his 2026 view to flat-to-+5% in December 2025.
“Small cap tech will outperform the broad tech trade [in 2026].”
One of Deepwater's eleven 2026 predictions, made alongside its call for the Nasdaq to gain 10% on the AI trade; resolves at the end of 2026.
“Wall Street forecasts call for Box to grow its business by roughly 9% in 2025 and 7% in 2026; I think the firm can expand by closer to 10%. It's kind of a forgotten story within AI, but in my opinion it's a really powerful one.”
Box's fiscal 2026 (ended January 31, 2026) revenue rose about 8% to $1.18 billion — short of 'closer to 10%' — but growth accelerated to roughly 11% in the quarter ended April 30, 2026, leaving the 2026 leg of the call open.
“Nvidia will grow revenue more than 65% year over year in 2026, well above Wall Street's roughly 50% consensus — bottom line: AI infrastructure growth in 2026 is likely to exceed expectations.”
Munster reiterated the above-65% CY2026 view in February 2026 as the Street moved toward ~55%; calendar-2026 revenue will not be fully known until Nvidia's fiscal Q4 2027 report in early 2027.
“Nvidia's updated guidance implies calendar 2027 revenue growth closer to 40% year over year, versus analyst consensus of about 30% — expectations for CY27 are still too low, and 'demand is tracking well above even high expectations.'”
Resolves on Nvidia's calendar-2027 revenue growth; Munster raised his CY27 estimate sharply (to ~90%) after Nvidia's August 2026 guidance.
“What's been happening with Nvidia is breathtaking — I expect revenue to grow by 90% for calendar year 2027.”
Follows Nvidia's guidance of ~70% fiscal 2028 revenue growth; resolves on Nvidia's calendar-2027 results.
“Nvidia will continue to be sold out until sometime in 2027 — the guidance underscores how early we still are in the AI buildout.”
Nvidia said cloud GPUs were sold out at its November 2025 results and its Grace Blackwell rack-scale systems remained sold out through its fiscal Q1 2027 report in May 2026; the call resolves on whether supply catches up to demand at some point in 2027.
“Elon's days of being 'paranoid' over accidents appear to be coming to an end. My guess is $TSLA adds 300 Cybercabs to Austin over the next month. That's just the start.”
Tesla expanded fast but fell well short of the number: Texas DMV records cited by CNBC on October 3, 2026 show Cybercabs authorized for commercial use rising from 45 at the September 3 Austin launch to 169 as of Friday, October 2 — about 124 added in the month, versus the 300 predicted. Munster's directional call (rapid, un-'paranoid' scaling — nearly a quadrupling, plus extended service hours) was right, but the magnitude was off by roughly half.
“Reddit will be acquired for their data. A company with a LLM will buy Reddit to train its model from.”
Reddit was not acquired in 2024; it went public in an IPO in March 2024 and instead monetized its data through licensing deals (notably with Google and OpenAI) rather than being bought by an LLM developer.
“AI will negatively impact the 2024 Presidential Election. Intentionally misleading content will be released to interfere with the election (e.g., deepfakes).”
AI-generated deepfakes and misleading political content did circulate during the 2024 campaign (e.g., the fake Biden robocall in New Hampshire), but post-election assessments from the Brennan Center, TIME and the Washington Post concluded AI did not meaningfully disrupt or sway the election, making the 'negative impact' far smaller than predicted.
“By now it's become clear that this June we will see their [Apple's] first foundation model, something that will compete with GPT, Gemini, xAI, Anthropic.”
Apple unveiled Apple Intelligence, built on its own Apple Foundation Models, at WWDC on June 10, 2024, within the predicted window. Munster's accompanying framing of the opportunity as roughly $33 billion a year in revenue, moving earnings in double digits, carried no deadline and has not materialized.
“Apple Intelligence will ultimately be the catalyst for an iPhone upgrade 'supercycle': 'The most potent piece of this demand acceleration is likely to come in the June quarter. I don't think it's going to play out in December.'”
Apple's June 2025 quarter was indeed the strongest of the cycle — iPhone revenue rose about 13.5% and total revenue 10% — but Munster himself conceded in May 2025 that the Apple Intelligence supercycle failed to appear: the iPhone 16 cycle (Sep '24–Jun '25) finished up only ~3% against his 8–10% forecast, and the June-quarter strength was widely attributed to tariff-driven pull-forward rather than AI features.
“The Nasdaq will see two 10% pullbacks, and still finish the year higher than it started [in 2025].”
The Nasdaq fell roughly 14% between February 17 and March 12, 2025 and a further ~16% between March 24 and the early-April tariff low, then recovered to finish 2025 up about 20% — Deepwater scored this prediction as a hit.
“Tech stocks haven't reached their bottom yet, but they are poised to go higher by the end of 2025 — the market is in the early stages of a two-year bull run.”
Tech stocks did fall further after March 24, bottoming in early April 2025 amid the tariff shock, and then rallied to records — the Nasdaq and the information-technology sector finished 2025 well above their March levels, matching both halves of the call.
“Apple will be the best performing Mag 7 stock in the first six months of 2026.”
Alphabet was the top-performing Magnificent Seven stock through the end of June 2026 (up roughly 13%, the only one of the seven to beat the S&P 500), while Apple rose about 9%. Apple only became the group's year-to-date leader after an April–July surge, i.e. after the H1 window closed.
“Uber and Lyft will underperform the Nasdaq [in 2025].”
Deepwater scored this a miss: Uber gained 42% and Lyft 62% in 2025 versus the Nasdaq's 22%, as robotaxi competition proved less disruptive than expected.