AI Prediction Index

OpenAI

AI research company (announcement made at the White House with Sam Altman, Larry Ellison and Masayoshi Son; equity funders SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX)

@OpenAIopenai.comWikipedia

50%
success rate · #69 of 144
0correct1half right0missed4on the clockFull leaderboard
“The Stargate Project is a new company which intends to invest $500 billion over the next four years building new AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States.”

AI research company (announcement made at the White House with Sam Altman, Larry Ellison and Masayoshi Son; equity funders SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, MGX)

Said Jan 21, 2025Deadline Jan 21, 2029OpenAI, 'Announcing The Stargate Project,' January 21, 2025

Four-year clock runs to January 2029. OpenAI said in late 2025 that over $400 billion of the commitment was lined up, but The Information reported in February 2026 that Stargate had fallen short of locking down the full 10GW of capacity through SoftBank and Oracle.

“OpenAI expects its advertising business to generate $2.5 billion in revenue in 2026, growing to $11 billion in 2027, $25 billion in 2028, $53 billion in 2029 and $100 billion by 2030.”

Company projections shared in investor presentations, reported by Axios

Said Apr 10, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030Axios (Ina Fried), April 2026

OpenAI said on August 31, 2026 that its ad business had reached a $1 billion annualized run rate less than 200 days after launch.

“OpenAI's revenue projections assume its products will reach 2.75 billion weekly users by 2030.”

Company projections shared in investor presentations, reported by Axios

Said Apr 10, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2030Axios (Ina Fried), April 2026

ChatGPT missed its internal target of 1 billion weekly active users by the end of 2025, per a WSJ report in April 2026.

“OpenAI plans to report annual losses through 2028 — burning roughly $9 billion this year on $13 billion in sales, a cash burn of about 70% of revenue, with operating losses of roughly $74 billion in 2028 — and then turn wildly profitable two years later, by 2030.”

Company financial documents shared with investors, obtained by The Wall Street Journal

Later projections seen by the FT (September 2026) show roughly $278 billion of negative free cash flow from 2026 through 2030 against $856 billion of compute spending, with profitability still targeted around 2030.

Energy & Data CentersPartially correct
“This puts us on a clear path to securing the full $500 billion, 10-gigawatt commitment we announced in January by the end of 2025, ahead of schedule.”

AI research company; Stargate lead operating partner with Oracle and SoftBank

Across all partners OpenAI blew past 10GW on paper — Altman said on October 28, 2025 that the company had roughly $1.4 trillion and ~30GW of infrastructure commitments. But the Stargate vehicle itself did not close it out: The Information reported in February 2026 that OpenAI fell short of locking in 10GW through SoftBank and Oracle by the end of 2025, with OpenAI citing 'well over 8GW' and $400B+ in play as of early 2026.