AI Prediction Index

McKinsey Global Institute

Research arm of McKinsey & Company, report 'Jobs lost, jobs gained: Workforce transitions in a time of automation'

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Jobs & Economy
“Between 400 million and 800 million individuals could be displaced by automation and need to find new jobs by 2030; as many as 375 million workers — about 14% of the global workforce — may need to switch occupational categories and learn new skills.”
McKinsey Global InstituteEconomist

Research arm of McKinsey & Company, report 'Jobs lost, jobs gained: Workforce transitions in a time of automation'

Said Nov 28, 2017Deadline Dec 31, 2030McKinsey Global Institute, 'Jobs lost, jobs gained: What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages', November/December 2017

Target year 2030 is still in the future; the 400–800 million range spans MGI's midpoint and rapid-adoption scenarios.

Jobs & Economy
“About half of all the activities people are paid to do in the world's workforce could potentially be automated by adapting currently demonstrated technologies; we estimate that half of today's work activities could be automated by 2055, but this could happen up to 20 years earlier or later.”
McKinsey Global InstituteEconomist

Research arm of McKinsey & Company, report 'A Future That Works: Automation, Employment and Productivity'

Said Jan 12, 2017Deadline Dec 31, 2055McKinsey Global Institute, 'A Future That Works: Automation, employment, and productivity', 12 January 2017

Target date 2055 is far in the future; MGI itself revised the midpoint forward to 2045 in its 2023 generative-AI work.