AI Prediction Index

I. J. Good

Mathematician and cryptologist, Bletchley Park veteran; researcher at the Atlas Computer Laboratory

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success rate · #159 of 159
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“It is more probable than not that, within the twentieth century, an ultraintelligent machine will be built and that it will be the last invention that man need make, since it will lead to an 'intelligence explosion.'”

Mathematician and cryptologist, Bletchley Park veteran; researcher at the Atlas Computer Laboratory

No machine capable of far surpassing all the intellectual activities of any man was built by the end of the twentieth century, and no intelligence explosion occurred; the AI systems of 2000 were narrow and the term 'ultraintelligent machine' remained speculative.