Bank of America Global Research

“Humanoid robot shipments will climb from 90,000 units in 2026 to 1.2 million units by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 86%.”

Bank of America Global ResearchWall Street

Sell-side research division of Bank of America; 'Physical AI, part 2: Humanoid robots'

2026 is not over; the starting point looks demanding — the International Federation of Robotics counted only about 7,000 humanoids sold worldwide in 2025 for industrial and professional service use.

“In 2030-35 the annual shipment volume of humanoid robots will reach 1 million (vs. 400,000 units estimated earlier) and 10 million units globally, corresponding to an 88% CAGR in 2025-35E.”

Bank of America Global ResearchWall Street

Sell-side research division of Bank of America; 'Humanoid robots 101' transformation report

Deadline is 2030 (with a 2035 leg); 2025 shipments were in the 7,000–17,000 range depending on the tracker, so the forecast implies roughly two orders of magnitude of growth in five years.

“A built-in-China humanoid robot's bill-of-materials cost was $35,000 in 2025 but will be roughly cut in half to below $17,000 by 2030, driven by scale effects and continued improvements in component design; by 2030 linear actuators will account for the largest BOM share (27%), followed by rotary actuators (24%) and dexterous hands (19%).”

Bank of America Global ResearchWall Street

Sell-side research division of Bank of America; 'Physical AI, part 2: Humanoid robots'

Deadline is 2030; Western-built pilot humanoids still carry roughly $90,000–$100,000 bills of materials, versus about $35,000 in China.

“Humanoid robot development will accelerate rapidly, with 3 billion humanoid robots in operation globally by 2060 — most of them ultimately in homes — as humanoids 'move from proofs of concept to multi-industry adoption by the end of the decade.'”

Bank of America Global ResearchWall Street

Sell-side research division of Bank of America

Deadline is 2060; BofA reaffirmed the 3-billion figure in its March 2026 'Physical AI, part 2' report, projecting 300 million units by 2040 on the way there.

“Global humanoid robot shipments will reach 18,000 units in 2025.”

Bank of America Global ResearchWall Street

Sell-side research division of Bank of America; 'Humanoid robots 101' transformation report

Third-party trackers put 2025 global humanoid shipments near the forecast — Yano Research estimated about 16,580 units and Smart Analytics Global's count implies roughly 16,000 — but the International Federation of Robotics counted only about 7,000 humanoids sold for industrial and professional service use, so the 18,000 figure was at or above the top of the actual range.