AI Prediction Index

ASML

Dutch lithography equipment maker; long-term financial model presented at ASML Investor Day 2022

50%
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“2030: annual revenue between approximately €44 billion and €60 billion with a gross margin between approximately 56% and 60%.”

Dutch lithography equipment maker; long-term financial model presented at ASML Investor Day 2022

Said Nov 11, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2030ASML Investor Day 2022 press release, November 11, 2022

Target confirmed again at ASML's 2024 Investor Day; 2026 guidance of €43–45 billion puts the low end of the 2030 range within reach four years early.

“ASML expects a double-digit EUV lithography spending CAGR between 2025 and 2030 for both advanced Logic and DRAM, as the continued cost-effective scalability of EUV allows customers to further transfer multi-patterning layers to single-patterning EUV 0.33 NA and EUV 0.55 NA.”

Dutch lithography equipment maker; demand outlook presented at ASML Investor Day 2024

Said Nov 14, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2030ASML Investor Day 2024 press release, November 14, 2024

Early evidence is supportive: ASML plans to raise low-NA EUV output capacity roughly 30% in 2027 (about 85 systems, from around 65 in 2026).

Jobs & EconomyPartially correct
“2025: annual revenue between approximately €30 billion and €40 billion with a gross margin between approximately 54% and 56%.”

Dutch lithography equipment maker; long-term financial model presented at ASML Investor Day 2022

Said Nov 11, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2025ASML Investor Day 2022 press release, November 11, 2022

ASML's 2025 total net sales came in at €32.7 billion, inside the €30–40 billion range, but the full-year gross margin was 52.8%, below the projected 54–56% band.