AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“AI will surpass the world's best competitive programmer within one to two years.”

Co-founder and CEO of Cognition (maker of Devin, the 'AI software engineer')

Window closes at the end of 2026. Trending toward correct: OpenAI's system reportedly beat every human finalist at the AtCoder World Tour Finals in July 2026, about 19 months after the prediction, after losing narrowly to human champion Psyho at the 2025 edition.