“I share this view from @S_OhEigeartaigh that AGI by 2027 likely won't happen. I define AGI as AI that can automate 99% of all 2024-era remote tasks at a cost less than an equivalently skilled human. I think the odds of achieving this by the end of 2027 are 2%.”
Head of Policy, AI Policy Network; co-founder of the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy; professional superforecaster
Said Jul 7, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2027Peter Wildeford on X, July 2025 (re-quoted in his March 5, 2026 thread)
Baseline forecast that Wildeford himself later revised upward to ~8%; resolves at the end of 2027.